Friday, January 29, 2016

Bracket Projection- 1/29/16

(1)SOUTH-Louisville, KY
OK City, OK
1 Oklahoma
16 Mt. St. Mary's /Texas Southern
8 Indiana
9 Wichita State
Providence, RI
5 Dayton
12 Cincinnati
4 Miami (FL)
13 Hofstra
OK City, OK
6 Texas
11 Oregon State/St. Joseph's
3 Texas A&M
14 UAB
Brooklyn, NY
7 Michigan
10 Syracuse
2 Villanova
15 Stony Brook

WEST(4)- Anaheim, CA
Spokane, WA
1 Oregon
16 Montana
8 South Carolina
9 Notre Dame
Spokane, WA
5 Louisville
12 UC-Irvine
4 Providence
13 Ark-Little Rock
Providence, RI
6 Colorado
11 VCU
3 West Virginia
14 Belmont
Des Moines, IA
7 Pittsburgh
10 Texas Tech
2 Iowa
15 New Mexico State

MIDWEST(2)-Chicago, IL
Raleigh, NC
1 Xavier
16 Bucknell/Hampton
8 Arizona
9 St. Mary's
Denver, CO
5 USC
12 San Diego State
4 Maryland
13 Chattanooga
Brooklyn, NY
6 Purdue
11 Monmouth
3 Virginia
14 Princeton
St. Louis, MO
7 California
10 Seton Hall
2 Iowa State
15 North Florida

EAST(3)-Philadelphia, PA
Raleigh, NC
1 North Carolina
16 UNC-Asheville
8 Florida
9 Washington
Denver, CO
5 Baylor
12 Valparaiso
4 Utah
13 South Dakota State
St. Louis, MO
6 Kentucky
11 Florida State/Stanford
3 Michigan State
14 Kent State
Des Moines, IA
7 Duke
10 Butler
2 Kansas
15 Texas A&M-CC

Danger Zone
Last 10 In:   Washington, Notre DameSyracuse, Seton Hall, Texas Tech, Butler, Florida State, Oregon State, St. Joseph's, Stanford
First 16 Out: UCLA, Kansas State, Alabama, Clemson, Connecticut, George Washington, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, Georgetown, Evansville, Davidson, Arizona State, Gonzaga, Georgia Tech, LSU, Boise State, 
Multiple Bid Conferences
ACC- 9
Pac-12-9
Big 12- 7
Big Ten- 6
Big East- 5
SEC- 4
A-10- 3

Saturday, January 23, 2016

Overvalued vs Undervalued

With about 7 weeks to Selection Sunday, there is a lot of basketball to be played. As of right now, the rankings are not very reflective of each teams total body of work. With our recent projection, there are several teams that are either overvalued or undervalued in the current rankings. We are not saying these teams are overrated, but they have not proved they are worthy of their ranking.

For example:

- Team A
-15-4
-RPI: 7
-SOS: 4
-Top 25: 3-1
-Top 50: 8-1
-Top 100: 8-3

- Team B
-17-2
-RPI: 9
-SOS: 56
-Top 25: 0-1
-Top 50: 0-2
-Top 100: 6-2

We currently have Team A as a 3 seed and Team B as a 4 seed. You are probably wondering why Team A is not a 2 seed and why Team B is not lower. However, only one of these teams is ranked and it is not Team A. Team B is actually currently ranked #7.

If you have not guessed, Team A is Oregon and Team B is Maryland. My first questions is: Why is Oregon not ranked?

Oregon is the most undervalued team according to the rankings as they have a resume that puts them close to the 2 line. We are not saying Maryland is overrated, but they have not had a schedule where they have been able to prove themselves worthy of their gaudy ranking. There are other teams that are currently overvalued.

Overvalued

- Duke
-14-5
-RPI: 31
-SOS:19
-Top 25: 0-2
-Top 50:1-3
-Top 100: 6-5

Duke is currently ranked #20 and will likely drop out on Monday. The Blue Devils should have dropped after last week with resume that is more comparable with bubble teams than contenders. When comparing Oregon's resume with Duke's, we are sure we are not the only ones confused.

- Butler
-13-5
-RPI: 44
-SOS: 54
-Top 25: 0-3
-Top 50: 1-5
-Top 100: 3-5

Butler is currently ranked #18 and is only 2-4 in Big East play after this week's loss to Providence. We currently have the Bulldogs as an 8 seed, but after looking at their resume, they appear to be more of a bubble team. We can't figure out why the Bulldogs are still ranked, especially knowing that a team like Oregon is not ranked.

- Indiana
-16-3
-RPI: 45
-SOS: 153
-Top 25:0-0
-Top 50:1-1
-Top 100:5-2

Indiana is ranked #25. They are undefeated in Big Ten play and have a gaudy record. It is hard to tell if Indiana is worthy of their ranking with only two Top 50 games thus far (W- Notre Dame, L-Duke). The Hoosiers are clearly getting love with their undefeated mark in conference play and their overall record but have the resume of a bubble team. With a back loaded schedule, they have a chance to show they are worthy of a ranking and a much higher seed than a 10.

 Undervalued

- Dayton
-15-3
-RPI: 10
-SOS:12
-Top 25: 1-1
-Top 50: 5-1
-Top 100: 8-2

Dayton does have a bad loss at La Salle, but with a resume this good, this team should definitely be ranked. We currently have the Flyers as a 5 seed and could be higher. Dayton proved out  of conference that they were worthy of a ranking, but it seems that their name and conference affiliation has prevented them locking in a spot.

- Texas
-12-6
-RPI: 14
-SOS:1
-Top 25: 3-1
-Top 50: 4-3
-Top 100: 6-5

Texas is clearly not ranked because of their 6 losses. However, when you play the #1 toughest schedule, it is difficult to have this good of a record. With wins over UNC, Iowa State, and West Virginia, the Longhorns have shown they can beat the best. We currently have them as a 5 seed because of their strong resume and 4-2 record in Big 12 play.

- Iowa State
-14-4
-RPI: 13
-SOS:8
-Top 25: 3-3
-Top 50:4-3
-Top 100: 7-3

Iowa State is currently ranked #19 and have wins over two current projected #1 seeds (Iowa and Oklahoma). We currently have the Cyclones as a #2 seed because of the wins over the top caliber teams. As long as they beat TCU today, the should soar into the Top 10. If not, I would be a little concerned of why. Their only real down side to their resume is loss to in state rival Northern Iowa, who at the time looked like a contender.

After evaluating these resumes, it is clear why these teams are seeded where we have them. Other bracketologists and fans may disagree, but the computer numbers do not lie when selecting and seeding teams on Selection Sunday.

Do you disagree? Go ahead comment and explain your reasoning.








Friday, January 22, 2016

Bracket Projection- 1/22/16

(1)SOUTH-Louisville, KY
OK City, OK
1 Oklahoma
16 Navy/Texas Southern
8 South Carolina
9 Wichita State
Denver, CO
5 Providence
12 Connecticut
4 USC
13 UAB
Des Moines, IA
6 Purdue
11 St. Mary's
3 Texas A&M
14 Belmont
Brooklyn, NY
7 Washington
10 Indiana
2 Virginia
15 Princeton

WEST(4)- Anaheim, CA
Des Moines, IA
1 Iowa
16 CS-Bakersfield
8 Notre Dame
9 George Washington
Spokane, WA
5 Miami (FL)
12 San Diego State
4 Baylor
13 William and Mary
Spokane, WA
6 Louisville
11 Valparaiso
3 Oregon
14 IPFW
Ok City, OK
7 Michigan
10 Monmouth
2 Kansas
15 Texas A&M-CC

EAST(2)-Philadelphia, PA
Brooklyn, NY
1 Villanova
16 Weber State
8 Duke
9 California
Providence, RI
5 Texas
12 VCU
4 Maryland
13 Chattanooga
St. Louis, MO
6 Utah
11 Seton Hall/Florida State
3 Michigan State
14 Northern Illinois
St. Louis, MO
7 Pittsburgh
10 UCLA
2 Iowa State
15 UNC-Asheville

MIDWEST(3)-Chicago, IL
Raleigh, NC
1 North Carolina
16 Hampton/Wagner
8 Butler
9 Florida
Denver, CO
5 Dayton
12 UC-Irvine
4 Arizona
13 UA-Little Rock
Providence, RI
6 Kentucky
11 Syracuse/Stanford
3 West Virginia
14 Stony Brook
Raleigh, NC
7 Colorado
10 Texas Tech
2 Xavier
15 North Florida

Danger Zone
Last 10 In:  South Carolina, George Washington, California, Florida, UCLA, Texas Tech, Seton Hall, Syracuse, Florida State, Stanford
First 16 Out: St. Joseph's, Alabama, Oregon State, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Vanderbilt, Georgetown, Arizona State, Georgia Tech, Boise State, Davidson, Evansville, Clemson, Cincinnati, Tulsa, Georgia 
Multiple Bid Conferences
ACC- 9
Pac-12-9
Big 12- 7
Big Ten- 6
Big East- 5
SEC- 4
A-10- 3


Friday, January 15, 2016

Bracket Projection- 1/15/16

(1)SOUTH-Louisville, KY
OK City, OK
1 Oklahoma
16 Bucknell/Jackson State
8 Oregon State
9 Monmouth
OK City, OK
5 Duke
12 Gonzaga
4 Kentucky
13 Chattanooga
St. Louis, MO
6 Dayton
11 Seton Hall/Kansas State
3 Miami (FL)
14 Texas A&M-CC
Brooklyn, NY
7 Utah
10 Indiana
2 Villanova
15 Princeton

EAST(4)- Philadelphia, PA
Raleigh, NC
1 Xavier
16 Grand Canyon
8 California
9 Florida
Spokane, WA
5 Iowa State
12 St. Bonaventure
4 Maryland
13 UC-Irvine
Spokane, WA
6 Pittsburgh
11 UA-Little Rock
3 Oregon
14 South Dakota State
Raleigh, NC
7 Butler
10 South Carolina
2 North Carolina
15 Stony Brook

SOUTH(2)-Louisville, KY
St. Louis, MO
1 Michigan State
16 Hampton/FDU
8 Alabama
9 Texas
Denver, CO
5 Louisville
12 Boise State
4 USC
13 William and Mary
Brooklyn, NY
6 Purdue
11 Notre Dame/UCLA
3 Providence
14 Belmont
Providence, RI
7 Michigan
10 Wichita State
2 West Virginia
15 North Florida

WEST(3)-Anaheim, CA
Des Moines, IA
1 Kansas
16 High Point
8 George Washington
9 Colorado
Denver, CO
5 Arizona
12 Tulsa
4 Texas A&M
13 UAB
Providence, RI
6 Baylor
11 Valparaiso
3 Virginia
14 Northern Illinois
Des Moines, IA
7 Texas Tech
10 UT-Arlington
2 Iowa
15 Montana

Danger Zone
Last 10 In:  Florida, Colorado, Texas, UT-Arlington, South Carolina, Indiana, Notre Dame, UCLA, Seton Hall, Kansas State
First 16 Out: St. Joseph's, Stanford, Georgia Tech, St. Mary's, Arizona State, Wake Forest, Ole Miss, Ohio State,   Davidson, Washington, Connecticut,  Cincinnati, VCU, BYU, Marquette, Florida State
Multiple Bid Conferences
Pac-12-8
Big 12- 8
ACC- 7
Big Ten- 6
SEC- 5
Big East- 5
A-10- 3
Sun Belt- 2 

  

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

Bracket Projection -1/5/16

Bracket Projection- 1/5/16 

(1)MIDWEST-Chicago, IL
St. Louis, MO
1 Kansas
16 High Point/Jackson State
8 Oregon State
9 Monmouth
Spokane, WA
5 Purdue
12 Valparaiso
4 Texas A&M
13 UC- Irvine
OK City, OK
6 George Washington
11 UT-Arlington
3 Miami (FL)
14 Kent State
Raleigh, NC
7 California
10 Texas
2 Xavier
15 Yale

EAST(4)- Philadelphia, PA
Brooklyn, NY
1 Providence
16 Army
8 Colorado
9 Florida
Des Moines, IA
5 West Virginia
12 UCLA/Notre Dame
4 Dayton
13 Louisiana Tech
Providence, RI
6 Pittsburgh
11 Chattanooga
3 Maryland
14 Northeastern
Brooklyn, NY
7 Utah
10 Gonzaga
2 Virginia
15 Stony Brook

SOUTH(2)-Louisville, KY
St. Louis, MO
1 Michigan State
16 Grand Canyon
8 Seton Hall
9 USC
St. Louis, MO
5 Duke
12 Wichita State
4 Iowa State
13 Ark-Little Rock/St. Joseph's
Denver, CO
6 Butler
11 Wake Forest
3 Kentucky
14 Texas A&M- CC
Raleigh, NC
7 Oregon
10 Michigan
2 UNC
15 North Florida

WEST(3)-Anaheim, CA
Ok City, OK
1 Oklahoma
16 Hampton/Wagner
8 Connecticut
9 Alabama
Spokane, WA
5 Louisville
12 Boise State
4 Iowa 
13 South Dakota State
Providence, RI
6 Texas Tech
11 Arizona State
3 Villanova
14 Belmont
Denver, CO
7 South Carolina
10 St. Mary's
2 Arizona
15 Idaho

Danger Zone
Last 10 In:  Alabama, Texas, Michigan, St. Mary's, Arizona State, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, UCLA, Ark-Little Rock, St. Joseph's
First 12 Out: Indiana, Baylor, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Northern Iowa,Kansas State, Richmond, Stanford, Davidson,  Marquette,  Northwestern, Florida State
Multiple Bid Conferences
Pac-12-9
ACC- 8
Big 12- 6
SEC- 5
Big East- 5
Big Ten- 5
A-10- 3
Sun Belt- 2 
WCC-2
  

Monday, December 28, 2015

Bracket Projection- 12/29

Bracket Projection- 12/29/15 

SOUTH(1)-Louisville, KY
St. Louis, MO
1 Michigan State
16 Hampton/Wagner
8 Texas
9 Monmouth
Spokane, WA
5 West Virginia
12 Notre Dame
4 Texas A&M
13 Hawaii
OK City, OK
6 George Washington
11 UNLV
3 Miami (FL)
14 William and Mary
Brooklyn, NY
7 South Carolina
10 Colorado
2 Providence
15 Stony Brook

WEST(4)-Anaheim, CA
OK City, OK
1 Kansas
16 UNC-Ashville
8 Iowa
9 USC
Brooklyn, NY
5 Dayton
12 Syracuse vs N Iowa
4 Kentucky
13 Louisiana Tech
Denver, CO
6 Duke
11 Valparaiso
3 Arizona
14 Texas AM-CC
St. Louis, MO
7 Pittsburgh
10 Gonzaga
2 Butler
15 North Florida

MIDWEST(2)-Chicago, IL
Ok City, OK
1 Oklahoma
16 Idaho
8 Vanderbilt
9 Cincinnati
Des Moines, IA
5 Louisville
12 Wichita State
4 Villanova
13 Richmond vs Indiana
Denver, CO
6 UCLA
11 Chattanooga
3 Purdue
14 Kent State
Raleigh, NC
7 Oregon
10 Seton Hall
2 UNC
15 Army

EAST(3)- Philadelphia, PA
Raleigh, NC
1 Xavier
16 UMKC vs Southern
8 Alabama
9 Texas Tech
Spokane, WA
5 Utah
12 Ark- Little Rock
4 Iowa State
13 South Dakota State
Providence, RI
6 Florida
11 Wake Forest
3 Maryland
14 Belmont
Providence, RI
7 Arizona State
10 Baylor
2 Virginia
15 Harvard

Danger Zone
Last 10 In:   Texas Tech, Baylor, Colorado, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, Indiana, Syracuse, Richmond, Northern Iowa
First 12 Out: Connecticut, Marquette,  UT-Arlington, Kansas State, Oregon State, St. Mary's, California, Davidson, Northwestern, Michigan, St. Joseph's,  Boise State
Multiple Bid Conferences
ACC- 9
Big 12- 7
Pac-12-7
SEC- 6
Big East- 5
Big Ten- 5
A-10- 3
MVC- 2   

Thursday, December 3, 2015

1 Month In and Many Early Season Surprises

College basketball has began with many early season surprises and upsets including:

Northern Iowa over North Carolina
George Washington over Virginia
Monmouth over UCLA, Notre Dame, and USC
UT Arlington over Ohio State and Memphis
Arkansas-Little Rock over San Diego State and Tulsa
Northeastern over Miami (FL)
Chattanooga over Georgia and Illinois
AND MANY OTHERS ANS THAT IS JUST THE 1ST MONTH OF THE SEASON.

This season each team take on a journey when anyone could beat anyone on any given night as shown above that anything can happen.

Early Season Surprises:(Some of these teams were expected to be pretty good)

Arkansas- Little Rock- The Trojans are undefeated and have victories at Tulsa and San Diego State. Looking like a potential favorite in the Sun Belt that could be dangerous in March or maybe the Sun Belt rep will be...

UT-Arlington- The Mavs have also bee impressive so far with wins at Memphis and Ohio State.Now, Memphis and Ohio State have not started too well especially Ohio State. The Mavs like their Sun Belt competitor have shown that this team should not be thought lightly of as well. Considering, they have only lost to Texas and ...

Louisiana Tech- The Bulldogs own victories at Ohio State and UT Arlington and only loss is to Memphis

Northeastern- The Huskies scored a big road win at Miami (FL). The same team that dominated Utah and Butler. If this one did not shock you then,

Northern Iowa- Maybe the Panthers victory over UNC did. It was at home and UNC was without Marcus Paige, but it is still a huge win that could help the Panthers get into the tourney. And speaking of Top 10 ACC teams losing, what about...

George Washington- The Colonials upset Virginia giving them a marquee win. GW was a preseason bubble team to start the year. If they lie on the bubble come March, this win over Virginia may push them in.

Monmouth- The Hawks could be the biggest surprise this season after playing in NEC only a few seasons ago. The Hawks are now in the MAAC where they have shown they could be the team to beat there with wins at UCLA, against Notre Dame, and USC.

Chattanooga- The Mocs own victories at Georgia and Illinois and have shown that they are the favorites in the SoCon who could potential be dangerous in March.

Others of Note:

North Florida over Illinois
Sacramento State over Arizona State
Western Illinois over Wisconsin
Radford over Georgetown and Penn State
Hofstra over Florida State
William and Mary over NC State
Valparaiso over Oregon State
Charleston over LSU

Biggest Disappointments:

Wichita State- The Shockers were a Top-10 team to start the season and are off to a 2-4 start. This is largely due to the fact Fred Van Fleet has been out, which is scary in many ways. Once Van Fleet gets healthy, a Top-10 caliber team could emerge but may have to win its conference tournament to get in, which could be bad news for the team that draws them in the Round of 64.

LSU- The Tigers have already lost 3 games. They are a young team that is expected to improve as the season moves on but have not looked like a Top 25 team yet.

Illinois- The Illini are 3-5 in what is looking like it will be John Groce's final season if the same performance continues.

Ranking the Top 12 Conferences
1. Big 12
2. Big East
3. ACC
4. Big Ten
5. Pac- 12
6. SEC
7. AAC
8. A-10
9. MWC
10. MVC
11. WCC
12. Conference USA

Games to Watch This Weekend:

Friday
Kansas State at Georgia
Northern Illinois at Missouri
Oregon at UNLV

Saturday
Grand Canyon at Louisville
Temple at Wisconsin
Syracuse at Georgetown
North Florida at Dayton
William and Mary at Virginia
Princeton at Stony Brook
New Mexico at Purdue
Arizona at Gonzaga
Ole Miss vs UMass
Northern Iowa at Richmond
Providence at URI
Morehead State at Indiana
UT Arlington at UTEP
Wichita State at St. Louis
Texas A&M at Arizona State