Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Bubble Watch- 2/25/15


Rhode Island(19-6, 11-3) vs. Davidson(19-6, 10-4)- Both teams are currently on the outside looking in.

A win for Rhode Island will give them another Top 100 win and will keep them tied at the top of the A-10 with VCU. They will still be on the outside looking in, but will move closer to the cut line. The Rams need to keeping winning if they want an at large bid. Remaining games at LaSalle, at Dayton, and home against St. Joe's. The game at Dayton is a great chance for a marque road win.

A win for Davidson will give them a road win over a Top 100 team and move them closer to the cut line. Like the Rams, the Wildcats need to keep winning. Any losses at this point will hurt their chances. The Wildcats end with GW and VCU at home, before finishing up at Duquesne. If they can win out the remainder of the regular season and win a couple of games in the conference tourney, the odds look good for Davidson.

Iowa(17-10, 8-6) vs Illinois(17-10, 7-7)- Both teams are currently in the field

Win for Iowa will give them another quality Top 100 win and keep them ahead of the play-in games with 3 games remaining before the conference tournament(@PSU, @IND, vs NW) If Iowa can finish at least 10-8 in the Big Ten and win at least one game in the Big Ten Tournament, they will likely be a lock for the tourney. Pretty much win 20 games and they should be safe.

Win for Illinois will give them a quality road win and keep them in the field. The Illini end the season with Northwestern and Nebraska at home and at Purdue. The home games are must wins.  They likely need to steal one on the road against either Iowa or Purdue and take of business at home and avoid a bad loss in the conference tourney.

Cincinnati(18-9, 9-5)- Currently in the field

Cincinnati hosts UCF tonight in a must win for the Bearcats. At this point the Bearcats need to keep winning and avoid bad losses. With 5 RPI Top 50 Wins, including a sweep of SMU, SDSU, at NC State, and Temple, the Bearcats have great wins. With bad losses to East Carolina, Tulane, and Nebraska, the Bearcats need to at least win the games they should. They need to take care of business against UCF, Tulane, and Memphis. If the Bearcats can win out the remaining games including at Tulsa and avoid bad losses in the AAC tourney, they will be in the tournament.

Tulsa(19-7, 12-2)- Outside looking in

Tulsa hosts Tulane tonight in a must win game for the Golden Hurricane. Tulsa ends the season at Memphis, at home against Cincinnati, and at SMU. The opportunities are there for Tulsa. This is pretty much a make it or break it stretch. They need to at least beat Cincinnati at home as well as beat Tulane and Memphis to stay in the hunt. If they can win out, they will win the league and up their odds to make the field.

Georgia(17-9, 8-6)- Currently in the field

Georgia plays at Ole Miss tonight. Georgia is currently in the field, but also finishes with a stretch of games that could seal their fate. After tonight, they host Missouri and Kentucky and end the season at Auburn. At worst, Georgia needs to beat Missouri and Auburn. If they can also beat Ole Miss or Kentucky they should be fine as long as they avoid bad losses.

Colorado State(23-5, 10-5)- Currently in the field

The Rams play San Jose State tonight and then end the season at Nevada and at Utah State. They need to win the three remaining games and avoid bad losses in the conference tourney. Avoid bad losses and a run in the conference tourney will likely lock the Rams in.

UCLA(16-12, 8-7)- Currently in the Last 4 In

The Bruins host Washington tonight before ending with Washington State and USC at home. The Bruins need to win these three games. Avoiding bad losses and winning games is all the Bruins need to do. If the Bruins end up in the 4/5 spot, a win in this game will likely be enough. 20 wins should be the magic number.

Oregon(20-8, 10-5)- Currently in the field

The Ducks visit Cal tonight. They end the season at Stanford and at Oregon State. With 3 road games remaining, the Ducks cannot afford to lose all three games. If the Ducks can at least beat Cal and Oregon State, make it to the Pac-12 Semi-finals, they will be in great position to make the tournament.

Miami(FL) (17-10, 7-7)- Outside looking in

The Hurricanes host Florida State tonight in a must win for the Canes. They finish up with North Carolina at home and at Pittsburgh and at Virginia Tech. At worst, Miami(FL) needs to win 3 out of 4 with the lone loss either being to Pitt or UNC to stay in the hunt. A run in the ACC tourney will likely be needed for the Canes. They need to avoid bad losses and win games.

Massachusetts(16-11, 9-5)- Outside looking in

The minutemen hosts St. Joe's tonight. UMass needs to keep winning if they want to chance a make it. Any more regular season losses will likely end at-large hopes. With Fordham and Richmond at home before ending at George Washington, the Minutemen need to win out and make a run in the A-10 conference tourney.

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