Sunday, March 15, 2015

Bubble Forecast- Morning of Selection Sunday

Safety Zone
ACC: Virginia, Duke, UNC, Louisville, Notre Dame, NC State
A-10: VCU, Dayton, Davidson
AAC: SMU, Cincinnati
Big East: Villanova, Butler, Providence, Georgetown, St. John's, Xavier
Big 12: Kansas, Iowa State, Baylor, Oklahoma, West Virginia
Big Ten: Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan State
MVC: Wichita State, Northern Iowa
MWC: San Diego State, Wyoming
PAC-12: Arizona, Utah, Oregon
SEC: Kentucky, Arkansas
WCC: Gonzaga

Danger Zone- These Teams Could Go Either Way
Colorado State, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Texas
Purdue, LSU, Boise State, Indiana,Temple, BYU, UCLA, Ole Miss, Miami (FL),Old Dominion, Tulsa, Richmond

Others of Note: Texas A&M, Murray State, Iona, Green Bay, Stanford, Rhode Island, Connecticut

Colorado State- The Rams are likely in, but there is a chance the committee could leave them out. With only 2 Top 50 wins and 5 Top 100 with none coming against the Top 25 and an SOS of 110, it is possible. Their positives are a Top 30 RPI and only won bad loss, which are things other bubblers can't say.

Oklahoma State- The Cowboys are pretty much a shoe in to make the dance. Their 17-13 D1 record
 and RPI of 49 makes us a little cautious of putting them in the safe zone, but with 6 Top 50 wins, they should be in.

Georgia- The Bulldogs were sitting good until fellow SEC bubblers began to slide giving Georgia 0 Top 50 wins with their best wins a sweep of Ole Miss. 8-9 record against the Top 100 with 2 bad losses could also help doom the Bulldogs. The best thing is their Top 40 RPI, which might be the main thing that gets them in. Georgia is in very interesting position.

Texas- The Longhorns have no bad losses, but are 3-12 against the Top 50 and 6-13 against the Top 100. With an RPI of 42 and no bad losses, Texas will probably make it.

Purdue- The Boilermakers have 4 Top 50 wins (BYU, Ohio State, NC State, and Iowa) and are 9-8 against the Top 100, but none that really stand out. Purdue also has an RPI of 53, 4 bad losses, and a NSOS of 212. When you dissect this resume, you realize how close to the cut line they really could be.

LSU- The Tigers have the strangest resumes of all bubble teams. 3-2 vs Top 50 and 12-5 vs Top 100 with great wins at West Virginia and at Arkansas. However, they have an RPI of 56 and feature 5 Sub 100 losses with 2 being over 200. Other potential trouble is their NSOS of 174. Their fate will depend on if the selection committee likes their record vs the Top 100 over their 5 bad losses.

Boise State- The Broncos allowed Wyoming to steal a bid and put themselves in a bad spot.3-3 vs Top 50 and 4-5 vs Top 100 with 3 bad losses and an RPI of 41 puts them in a dangerous spot. Will their regular season MWC Championship be valued as well as their sweep of San Diego State? It's going to be close.

Indiana- The Hoosiers have an RPI of 60 and are 4-7 against the Top 50 (Maryland, SMU, Butler, Ohio State). They are 8-12 vs Top 100 with one bad loss. Great Wins, but a bad RPI, road/neutral record (5-9), bad NSOS of 115, and nothing to show for during the second half of the season. If they get in, it will be their wins out of conference vs, SMU and Butler that get them in.

Temple- The Owls beat down of Kansas has carried them this far. Their only other Top 50 win came against Cincy. 2 bad losses doesn't help either, but all other 8 losses are in the Top 50. The RPI of 34 helps, but the Kansas win may be their saving grace. Ultimately, the committee's opinion of the AAC could be the deciding factor.

BYU- The Cougars won at Gonzaga and have nothing else in the Top 50 to show for. They are only 4-4 vs Top 100 with 3 bad losses. Their good RPI, road record, NSOS, and win at Gonzga are their positives. Lack of good wins and multiple bad losses have put the Cougars in trouble. BYU fans will be nervous all day today.

UCLA- The Bruins may be the most impressive team on this list down the stretch especially by playing Arizona to the end twice. Bad thing for UCLA is their 4-11 Road/Neutral record and their 5-10 record vs 100 does not look well. They did beat Utah and Oregon, played a NSOS of 52, and looked very impressive against Arizona. If the Bruins get in, the eye test played a role.

Ole Miss- The Rebels collapsed down the stretch and are in bad shape. They have great wins away from home (at Arkansas, at Oregon, N-Cincinnati), but are 3-5 against the Top 50 and have 4 sub-100 home losses. With an RPI of 55, their road wins, road/neutral record, close game at Kentucky, and NSOS are what is in their favor. Their quantity of home losses especially bad ones is not as well as quantity of good wins in general. This will be an interesting case today.

Miami (FL)- The Hurricanes have the only win at Duke this season, which could carry them in the field. Howver, an RPI of 65, 4 Sub-100 losses, 6-8 vs Top 100, and a NSOS of 193 do not favor Miami (FL). There is a chance, but it will ultimately depend on the value of this season's only win at Duke.

Old Dominion- With 5 bad losses and 1 Top 50 win, it will likely be a longshot. Their 6-2 mark vs Top 100, their NSOS (49), and RPI of 46 are their strengths. It just doesn't seem like it will happen.

Tulsa- The Golden Hurricane's sweep over Temple remains their only Top 50 wins. Tulsa also has a D2 loss at home that does not appear on their RPI. There really isn't anything great on their resume that is showing they are worthy...Maybe their AAC conference record and R/N record of 10-5. The odds are not on their side.

Richmond- The Spiders fell short of their 3rd win over VCU and having a chance at another Top 50 win. With an RPI of 57, 3 Sub 100 losses, and a 7-10 mark vs Top 100, it's probably not going to be the right side of the bubble. However, a NSOS of 32 and 2 Top 25 wins give them a glimmer of hope.

No comments:

Post a Comment