Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Friday - Monday Bubble Updates

Bubble Winners

NC State- The Wolfpack defeated Syracuse for the Orange's final game of the season. Preventing a 13th loss before the conference tourney is huge for NC State as 13 losses will now be the maximum amount losses they will have after the ACC tournament. With plenty of great wins, the Wolfpack are safe and will be dancing.

Miami (FL) - The Canes won at Virginia Tech preventing a bubble bursting loss keeping them in the hunt for a bid. Right now, it does look good for Miami (FL). With 4 bad losses and only 2 Top 50 wins, it is clear that the Canes have some work to do in the ACC tournament to get on the good side of the bubble. Right now, the outlook does not look favorable.

Michigan State- The Spartans won at Indiana and are in great shape for a bid with a Top 30 RPI. The bad is that they only have 2 Top 50 wins and have a couple bad losses. A 3rd bad loss may make things interesting for Izzo's Spartans. Avoid another bad loss in the Big Ten Tourney and Michigan State will be a 100% lock.

Temple- The Owls defeated the defending National Champions to stay in the hunt for a bid. Bad news is that beating the Huskies is only a Top 100 win this year. Temple is on the bubble and could go either way as they are right near the current at-large cut line. Up next is the AAC Tournament where they open with UConn.

Rhode Island- The Rams beat St. Joe's and are the 3rd seed in the A-10 tourney. A lot of work is needed, so a trip to the finals is likely the only way they will be seriously considered. That likely will not be enough, so the automatic bid is their ticket if they want to dance.

Xavier- The Musketeers avoided the potential trap on the road at Creighton. Xavier probably will not have the opportunity to pick up another bad loss moving them into the safe zone for now.

LSU- After moving into a dicey spot, the Tigers responded with a great buzzer beating victory at Arkansas. This huge win propelled the Tigers to a more comfortable position on the bubble where the forecast is much more favorable now. One win in the SEC Tournament may be enough to secure a bid. If not, LSU may be sweating it out.

Texas- The Longhorns beat Kansas State to move to 8-10 in the Big 12. Texas is 2-9 against the RPI Top 25 and 3-11 against the Top 50. With their worst loss being Stanford, the Longhorns may be in better position than people think. However, a bad record against superior competition may be a factor. Although, would they really punish a team that has 12 quality losses? Up next is Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament. A win there may be enough for Texas.

Georgia- The Bulldogs avoided another bad loss and being swept by Auburn. UGA should be safe as long as they do not pick up a bad loss in the SEC Tournament.

Purdue- The Boilermakers bounced back and beat Illinois. Purdue sits squarely on the bubble and could go either way if Selection Sunday was tonight. Lose their first game in the Big Ten tournament, and it will be a long wait for Purdue. Some damage in the Big Ten Tourney will help the Boilermakers feel better about their chances.

Old Dominion- The Monarchs beat Western Kentucky and are now currently in the RPI Top 40. With wins over VCU and LSU, but some bad losses, ODU is also on the bubble cut line. The Monarchs need to make the Conference USA Finals to have a chance at an at-large bid. Taking the auto bid should be their goal that would erase any doubt and make other bubble teams breathe easier.

Davidson- The Wildcats defeated Duquesne on the road avoided a set back. This win gave Davidson the regular season A-10 Conference Championship. The Wildcats are moving in the right direction. A run to the semifinals may be enough to solidify a bid. A trip to the A-10 Finals would be a sure thing.

Boise State- The Broncos beat Fresno State clinching the 1 seed in the MWC Tournament. Boise State needs to make the MWC Finals to keep their odds strong. A loss before that would be a bad loss that they cannot afford.

Richmond- The Spiders avoided the potential bubble bursting loss to Saint Louis. Richmond will likely face VCU in the A-10 quarterfinals. A trip to the A-10 Finals with a win over VCU and Davidson could make this bubble long shot a reality.

Colorado State- The Rams win at Utah State preventing a bad loss. Colorado State's resume is very bland (Not many good wins but few questionable losses). The Rams potential will have a huge MWC semifinal against San Diego State. A win there and it will be hard to leave Colorado State out.

BYU- The Cougars edged out Santa Clara and rolled Portland to reach the WCC Finals against Gonzaga. A win would give them an auto bid, but a loss will keep the Cougars sweating as it will be close.

Cincinnati- The Bearcats defeated Memphis and will dance. However, they should not chance picking up a questionable loss in the AAC Tournament.

Bubble Losers

Pittsburgh- The Panthers lost in Tallahassee to the Seminoles, which pretty much pops their bubble. Only chance for the Panthers is to make a run in the ACC tournament where they would likely need to reach the finals. It's possible but looking very cloudy.

Indiana- The Hoosiers lost again and this time it was at home against the Spartans. Indiana is taking on water quickly and is now in trouble of missing the dance. The Big Ten Tournament looms large for them. The Hoosiers may want to win a couple game there to prevent the possibility of being left out.

Texas A&M- The Aggies were defeated at home by Alabama and are now drifting into a dangerous area. The resume lacks quality wins with a sweep of LSU being the only wins of note. Not many bad losses though, which helps. The Aggies likely need to win some games in the SEC tourney to receive a bid.

Stanford- The Cardinal were blitzed at Arizona as expected and are now more of a fringe candidate with only 2 good wins (at Texas, Wofford). Stanford definitely needs to reach the PAC-12 Finals with wins over Utah and Oregon to have a shot.

Dayton- The Flyers lost at La Salle picking up a questionable loss to end their regular season. Dayton has an at-large profile, so as long as they do not pick up another bad loss in the A-10 tourney, they will be dancing.

Illinois- The Illini lost to Purdue and are most likely on the outside looking in. The good news is that Illinois will have an opportunity in the Big Ten Tourney to make one last impression, which a great one will be needed there for the Illini to feel good about their chances.

Ole Miss- The Rebels lost their 7th home game of the season on Saturday making their resume even stranger. They have good wins, but multiple questionable losses with most of those coming at home. Like other, Ole Miss needs to avoid a bad loss in their conference tournament.

Tulsa- The Golden Hurricane were oh so close to picking up their best win of the season, but instead suffered a tough loss at SMU. With a sweep of Temple as your best wins and a profile lacking quality (not many Top 200 wins and a couple bad losses), Tulsa is on the cut line going into AAC tournament where the opportunity for great wins will not be as available. Tulsa's loss to a Division 2 opponent may ultimately keep them from receiving an at-large berth.

Safety Zone
ACC: Virginia, Duke, UNC, Louisville, Notre Dame, NC State
A-10: VCU
Big East: Villanova, Butler, Providence, Georgetown, St. John's, Xavier
Big 12: Kansas, Iowa State, Baylor, Oklahoma, West Virginia
Big Ten: Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa, Ohio State
MVC: Wichita State, Northern Iowa
MWC: San Diego State
PAC-12: Arizona, Utah
SEC: Kentucky, Arkansas,
WCC: Gonzaga

Danger Zone(Safest Teams are listed 1st-However, there is a very thin line from the first team to the last team on this list)
Oregon, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Cincinnati, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Davidson,Colorado State,Texas, Boise State, Purdue, Indiana,Temple.UCLA, Tulsa, BYU, Texas A&M, Old Dominion,Illinois, Miami (FL), Richmond, Pittsburgh, Stanford,Rhode Island, Murray State, Iona

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