Saturday, January 23, 2016

Overvalued vs Undervalued

With about 7 weeks to Selection Sunday, there is a lot of basketball to be played. As of right now, the rankings are not very reflective of each teams total body of work. With our recent projection, there are several teams that are either overvalued or undervalued in the current rankings. We are not saying these teams are overrated, but they have not proved they are worthy of their ranking.

For example:

- Team A
-RPI: 7
-SOS: 4
-Top 25: 3-1
-Top 50: 8-1
-Top 100: 8-3

- Team B
-RPI: 9
-SOS: 56
-Top 25: 0-1
-Top 50: 0-2
-Top 100: 6-2

We currently have Team A as a 3 seed and Team B as a 4 seed. You are probably wondering why Team A is not a 2 seed and why Team B is not lower. However, only one of these teams is ranked and it is not Team A. Team B is actually currently ranked #7.

If you have not guessed, Team A is Oregon and Team B is Maryland. My first questions is: Why is Oregon not ranked?

Oregon is the most undervalued team according to the rankings as they have a resume that puts them close to the 2 line. We are not saying Maryland is overrated, but they have not had a schedule where they have been able to prove themselves worthy of their gaudy ranking. There are other teams that are currently overvalued.


- Duke
-RPI: 31
-Top 25: 0-2
-Top 50:1-3
-Top 100: 6-5

Duke is currently ranked #20 and will likely drop out on Monday. The Blue Devils should have dropped after last week with resume that is more comparable with bubble teams than contenders. When comparing Oregon's resume with Duke's, we are sure we are not the only ones confused.

- Butler
-RPI: 44
-SOS: 54
-Top 25: 0-3
-Top 50: 1-5
-Top 100: 3-5

Butler is currently ranked #18 and is only 2-4 in Big East play after this week's loss to Providence. We currently have the Bulldogs as an 8 seed, but after looking at their resume, they appear to be more of a bubble team. We can't figure out why the Bulldogs are still ranked, especially knowing that a team like Oregon is not ranked.

- Indiana
-RPI: 45
-SOS: 153
-Top 25:0-0
-Top 50:1-1
-Top 100:5-2

Indiana is ranked #25. They are undefeated in Big Ten play and have a gaudy record. It is hard to tell if Indiana is worthy of their ranking with only two Top 50 games thus far (W- Notre Dame, L-Duke). The Hoosiers are clearly getting love with their undefeated mark in conference play and their overall record but have the resume of a bubble team. With a back loaded schedule, they have a chance to show they are worthy of a ranking and a much higher seed than a 10.


- Dayton
-RPI: 10
-Top 25: 1-1
-Top 50: 5-1
-Top 100: 8-2

Dayton does have a bad loss at La Salle, but with a resume this good, this team should definitely be ranked. We currently have the Flyers as a 5 seed and could be higher. Dayton proved out  of conference that they were worthy of a ranking, but it seems that their name and conference affiliation has prevented them locking in a spot.

- Texas
-RPI: 14
-Top 25: 3-1
-Top 50: 4-3
-Top 100: 6-5

Texas is clearly not ranked because of their 6 losses. However, when you play the #1 toughest schedule, it is difficult to have this good of a record. With wins over UNC, Iowa State, and West Virginia, the Longhorns have shown they can beat the best. We currently have them as a 5 seed because of their strong resume and 4-2 record in Big 12 play.

- Iowa State
-RPI: 13
-Top 25: 3-3
-Top 50:4-3
-Top 100: 7-3

Iowa State is currently ranked #19 and have wins over two current projected #1 seeds (Iowa and Oklahoma). We currently have the Cyclones as a #2 seed because of the wins over the top caliber teams. As long as they beat TCU today, the should soar into the Top 10. If not, I would be a little concerned of why. Their only real down side to their resume is loss to in state rival Northern Iowa, who at the time looked like a contender.

After evaluating these resumes, it is clear why these teams are seeded where we have them. Other bracketologists and fans may disagree, but the computer numbers do not lie when selecting and seeding teams on Selection Sunday.

Do you disagree? Go ahead comment and explain your reasoning.

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