Sunday, March 13, 2016

Bubble Watch

Bubble Watch-Selection Sunday

In a field that has been the hardest to project to this date there are 21 Teams that potential could grab the final 10 spots.

 VCU does not have too many good wins with only 2 Top 50 wins and were oh so close to huge road win at Dayton that would have greatly increased their chances and gave them the regular season crowd. There is work to do in the A-10 tourney.  They reached the final and lost. Now, they wait. VCU should be win, but could get left out due to a lack of good wins.

 The Bulldogs have been barely hanging on for weeks now and remain as they defeated Creighton to avoid falling down.  They have the sweep of Seton Hall to go with their win over Purdue and  a few bubble teams. Butler has a little more room to breathe now. They lost the autolock game vs Providence that would have sealed it for them. The Bulldogs likely will get in, but it will be a long couple days. If they miss, it will be because of bad Non-Conference SOS and only having 6 Top 100 wins.

The Bearcats picked up their best win of the season over SMU after falling to Houston. Cincy is very much on the bubble and could swing either way. Up next is a date in the quarterfinals with fellow bubbler UConn. Win this one, and they will at least be ahead of UConn in pecking order. They fell in a 4OT classic after it seemed victory and safety was present. Now, they will have to wait. Odds are looking pretty good for them. If they miss, it will because of their .500 record vs Top 200 and losing record vs. 150.

The Panthers followed their domination of Duke with losses at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. They rebounded again by seating Syracuse for a third time. This win helped a little as they should be ahead of Syracuse in pecking order. They played UNC tough for a while then eventually fell it, so they wait and see. Overall, it looks pretty good, but they still have a 2-7 record vs Top 50. A trip to Dayton could around the corner. How much would the Panthers like to reschedule the Gonzaga game now? Pitt has a been chance of making than missing, but it is not a sure thing. If they miss, it will be because of a lack of good wins and weak non-conference SOS numbers.

St. Bonaventure
 The Bonnies completed their season sweep of St. Joe's giving them another Top 50 win and won at St. Louis. St. Bona is still a bubble team, but their odds are getting better. They were the 3 seed in the A-10 tourney and lost a heartbreaker to Davidson. 1 more win would have been enough. Now, it is in the committee's hand. If they miss, their lack of good wins in their non-conference play will be the reason.

Wichita State
 The Shockers do not have a great at-large profile. Some think they are a lock, but once you dissect their resume that features their  worst loss when they had their entire team. Only win good win, which was a big one against Utah, added with a few other Top 100 wins(at Northern Iowa and a sweep of Evansville) does not sound too good. After losing in semifinals to Northern Iowa, it will be a long week for the Shockers. They get in if the injuries were important to the selection committee. They will miss if they felt that losing to Illinois State with their whole team cancelled out their non-conference performance.

St. Mary's
The Gaels do not have a great at-large profile either with their best wins being a sweep of Gonzaga. They reached the WCC title game and lost to Gonzaga. They are right on the cut line, but with a poor strength of schedule especially their non-conference where they did not leave the state of California, this 27 win team could be left out. It is going to be a long 4 days. If they get in, it will be because they were impresses by their number of wins and regular season crown of a good league. If they miss, their 18-0 record vs 201+ will be why.


 The Owls beat Memphis and won at Tulane to win the American regular season crown. However, this team needed more good wins. They are only 8-10 vs Top 200, which was why they were left out last season. They make the tourney if they value their 5 Top 50 wins and American regular season title. They miss if their shaky RPI number and 8-10 record vs Top 200 record.

A loss at Florida State is not too damaging, but their overall resume is starting to depreciate and continued after losing to Pitt for a 3rd time. They currently have the worst RPI of all at-large teams on our projected bracket. This will be a nerve wracking few days for Orange fans as their fate could go either way. They had a great case behind their slide during the games with Boeheim until they lost 5 of their last 6 with him. 

The Hawks finished 1st in the MAAC and lost in the MAAC tourney finals. The entertaining Hawks had some great road wins out of conference, but the Georgetown and UCLA ones have really depreciated. With three bad losses, it is going to be very close. They get if they value their road performance. They miss if the selection committee gives a lot of weight to their 16-3 vs Top 200+. 

South Carolina
The Gamecocks lost at home to Georgia and then seemed to be drifting out. But  bounced back at Arkansas preventing another bad loss. A resume with a bad non-conference SOS, lack of good wins, and bad losses is starting to possibly offset their low amount of losses. They lost to UGA for a third time. It's going to be a long night. The Gamecocks will make it if their overall record is valued. If they miss, it will because their poor non-conference SOS, lack of good wins, and 3 bad losses.

The Wolverines picked up a huge win over Indiana. They have 4 Top 50 wins, but  only 4 Top 100 wins. Their 4-12 mark against the Top 100 is bad. However, no bad losses is good and only one is outside the Top 50. They really let an opportunity get away when Iowa limped into town and flew away with a win. Now, it's time to join the the other bubblers to see who can sweat the most. Michigan gets in if their 4 good wins are valued and lack of bad losses. They miss is their poor record vs. Top 100 is valued.

 The Commodores lost at Texas A&M and are stuck with 2 Top 50 wins, which were both at home.  Advancing to the semis was a must but they could not even make the quarterfinals after picking up their 3rd bad loss of the season. With an RPI in the 60s, only 2 Top 50 wins, a 7-10 mark vs Top 100, and 3 bad losses, their tourney picture is not looking so good. They will have to wait and see how other bubblers play out now.

San Diego State
 The Aztecs have a  50/50 chance of receiving an at-large in this down year for the Mountain West. They get in if the MWC regular season crown, high RPI, and win over California. They miss if their lost to San Diego and lack of Top 100 wins weighs more in the decision.

 The Gators have an 19-14 record with a lack of good wins. Usually 14 losses is too many. A trip to the finals was needed but lost in a crucial game against Texas A&M. Not likely, but there are definitely being considered. If they make it , it's because of high SOS. If they miss, 14 losses overall is the main factor.

 The Crusaders are more of a fringe bubble candidate as they could not beat Wright State or Ball State this season. A win at Oregon State is nice, but losing in the Horizon semis to Green Bay may be not be swallowed well by the selection committee. It doesn't look promising, but they will be in discussion at least. They will get in if the value high achieving mid-majors over middling majors. If they do not see it this way, Valpo is NIT bound.

 The Bulldogs make it if their SOS figure is valued. If they miss, lack of goods is the best way to put it.

The Pride lost to UNC-Wilmington in the CAA finals. They are 2-2 vs Top 50, 6-4 vs Top 100, but have 5 losses vs RPI 100-200. However, three of those losses are to teams between 100-110. The Pride are likely headed to the NIT, but  after looking into their profile, it is worth mentioning there is a slight chance. If they get in, see Valpo reasoning above.

 The Golden Hurricane got by a surprisingly fiesty USF squad. Work was needed in the American tourney, but they picked up a third bad loss, which was their second to Memphis in a game that the Golden Hurricane were blown out. NIT is probably next.

The Tigers picked up their only bad loss which cost them the auto bid. A profile with 1 bad loss and 1 Top 100 win likely will not secure a bid. The Tigers are still an interesting case because of their high RPI and low amount of losses(Most of which are to quality teams). See Valp for reasoning.

George Washington
 The Colonials followed up their costly home loss to VCU by defeating George Mason, but then lost at Davidson. There just is not enough good wins here with only 4 Top 100 wins and a few bad losses too. They are the 5 seed, where they could grab wins over St. Joe's and Dayton to get to the finals. That is the minimum and that may not even be enough.  

Bubbles Burst: Alabama, Stanford, Florida State, Houston, Ohio State, Washington

Safety Zone
AAC: Connecticut
ACC: Virginia, UNC, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Duke
A-10: Dayton, St. Joseph's
Big East: Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence
Big 12: Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas Tech
Big Ten: Iowa, Michigan State, Maryland, Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin
PAC-12: Oregon, Utah, Arizona, California, Colorado, USC, Oregon State
SEC: Kentucky, Texas A&M
WCC: Gonzaga

Danger Zone- Current At-Large Contenders
VCU, Butler, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, St. Bonaventure, Wichita State, St. Mary's,  Temple, Syracuse,  Monmouth, South Carolina, Michigan, Vanderbilt, San Diego State , Florida, Valparaiso, Georgia, Princeton, Hofstra, Tulsa, George Washington

No comments:

Post a Comment