Bubble Watch- 3/16/19- 1 Day Until Selection Sunday

With only 1 day until Selection Sunday, Championship Week really picks up today. Unlike last season, the Bubble is much weaker  and there is a lot of uncertainty with many resumes that normally would not receive much consideration. However, there are several potential bid stealers which could ultimately make it an even more crowded line of bubble teams to get into the dance.

The following 5 conferences have bid stealing potential:

- AAC (Wichita State)
- A-10 (St. Bonaventure or St. Louis)
- MAC (Bowling Green)
- MWC (San Diego State)
- Pac-12 (Oregon)


March Madness is here, and it should be a very dramatic weekend. Beware of bid stealers!

Here is the current breakdown:


Safety Zone
AAC: Houston, Cincinnati, UCF 
ACC: Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Louisville
A-10: 
Big East: Marquette, Villanova, Seton Hall
Big 12: Texas Tech, Kansas State, Kansas, Iowa State, Baylor, 
Big Ten: Michigan State, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa, Minnesota
MAC: Buffalo
MWC: Nevada
OVC: Murray State
PAC-12: 
SEC: Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn,
Southern: Wofford
WCC: Gonzaga, St. Mary's

Neutral Zone- Almost Locks
Syracuse, Oklahoma, Washington, Ole Miss 

Danger Zone- Current At-Large Contenders
VCU, Utah State, St. John's, Arizona State, Ohio State, Temple, TCU, Florida, Belmont, UNC-Greensboro, NC State, Alabama, Creighton, Furman, Indiana, Clemson, Texas, Oregon, Georgetown, Lipscomb, Providence, Memphis,

VCU (25-7 NET: 31 vs Tier 1 2-2, vs Tier 3-3)

- The Rams were upset against Rhode Island which is their 2nd bad loss. After looking at this resume, it is not as good as one might think.

Utah State (25-6 NET: 30 vs Tier 1 4-2, vs Tier 2 0-4)

- The Aggies survived a scare yesterday, so the odds are now in their favor. A loss to Fresno State probably wouldn't be enough to knock them out. However, if there are many bid stealers, things could get rocky.

St. John's (21-12- NET: 72 vs Tier 1 5-7, vs Tier 2 5-3)

- The Red Storm have the lowest NET ranking of all current at-large teams, which is not a good thing. It was rare during the RPI era for a team to get an at-large with an RPI over 70. Outside of the sweep of Marquette and home win over Villanova, the other Q1 and Q2 wins are not too great. Not mention, the 2 bad losses and weak NSOS.

Arizona State (22-9)- NET: 63 vs Tier 1 3-3, vs Tier 2 8-2)

- Arizona State is in a similar place as last season except their record vs the Top 2 tiers is better. The main issues with their resume the 4 bad losses and low NET ranking for a team with only 3 Q1 wins. They could survive a loss to Oregon today, but it will be a long wait either way if they don't get the auto bid.

Ohio State (19-13  NET: 55 vs Tier 1 4-9, vs Tier 5-3)

- Ohio State is back to full strength and proved to the Selection Committee by defeating Indiana yesterday to end their skid. A close game against Michigan State should be enough assuming there is not too many bids stolen.

Temple (23-8) NET: 51 Tier 1 2-6, Tier 2 6-1

- The Owls have home wins over Houston and UCF as well as a collections of Q2 wins. The 1 bad loss was a rivalry game. Temple could fall either way and losing to Memphis today definitely is not recommended as their overall resume is lacking. A trip to the AAC Finals should lock them in.

TCU (20-13 NET: 50 vs Tier 1 3-9, vs Tier 2 7-4)

- TCU play Kansas State tough before falling short. They avoided a loss to OK State which would have knocked them out. It is going to be close, and with their best wins being a sweep of Iowa State and at Texas, the lack of great wins could hurt. Their 10-13 mark vs Q1-2 is not too great either. TCU does not need any bid stealers.

Florida (18-14)- NET: 32 vs Tier 1 3-11, vs Tier 2 4-1

- The pros are a high net ranking and a win at LSU. The cons are the 2 bad losses and the possibility of being 18-15. If they get in, their 2 pros is what got them there. It could go either way. Stolen bids could toss the Gators out.

Belmont (25-5) NET: 46 Tier 1 2-2, Tier 2 3-1

- With the weakness of the bubble, the Bruins have a chance. Though, their bid could easily be stolen. A sweep of Lipscomb and a win at Murray State highlight their  resume. It is going to depend on how the committee evaluates high achieving mid-majors vs mediocre power conference teams.

UNC-Greensboro (26-6 NET: 60 vs Tier 1 2-6, vs Tier 2 2-0)

- Their strength is having an average NET loss of 16, which is similar to the teams competing for 1 and 2 seed, which is very impressive for a mid-major that plays in a conference loaded with mines. If the committee values this, they will be in. If not, then they will be left out.

NC State (22-11)- NET: 33 vs Tier 1 3-9, vs Tier 2 6-0 
- Their high NET ranking is really the only positive on their resume. If we were going by RPI still, this team would not get much consideration since their RPI is over 100. Their best wins are home against Auburn and neutral games against Clemson and Penn State. If they get in, the committe clearly went by NET ranking on this one.

Alabama (18-14) NET: 58 Tier 1 3-9, Tier 2 7-3
- Alabama got their 3rd Q1 win by beating Ole Miss yesterday to go along with their Kentucky and Mississippi State wins. The problem is that with a loss today, they will be 18-15. A team with this record would likely get selected if there were many quality wins. Today's game is a must win. A loss means a long wait with nothing that really makes their chances seem great.

Creighton (17-14)- NET: 52 vs Tier 1 3-10, vs Tier 2 6-4

- The Bluejays lost to Xavier yesterday giving them a 17-14 record. Only 1 team has ever received a at-large bid that was less than 4 games above .500. That team had several great wins and played all but 3 against the Top 100. Creighton had 8 games against Q3-4 teams.

Furman  (22-7)- NET: 42 vs Tier 1 1-5 vs Tier 2 3-1
- The Paladins were the early story when they won at Villanova. However, Wofford ended up being the king of the SoCon. Furman is squarely on the bubble and needs to hope that are no more bid stealers and that the committee values them over the power conference teams on the bubble.

Indiana (17-15) NET: 53 Tier 1 6-9, Tier 2 2-6

- A great run to end the season put the Hoosiers back in consideration. However, a 8-15 record against Q1-2 is not great and neither is their 17-15 record. They will get win if they go strictly by Q1 wins.

Clemson (19-13) NET: 35 Tier 1 1-10, Tier 2 6-3

- The Tigers have a solid NET but not much else. A 1-10 mark vs Q1 is not good, and the win is over Virginia Tech not Duke, Virginia, or UNC. If NET is the main factor, they will get in. If everything else is accounted for, it is really hard to make a case for them.

Texas (16-16) NET: 37 Tier 1 5-10, Tier 2 4-5

- The Longhorns have great wins but are only .500. Rewarding this team would be wrong for NCAA basketball. If they do get in, we will know NET ranking and Q1 wins was all they were looking at.

Oregon (21-12)- NET: 56 vs Tier 1 2-5, vs Tier 2 3-4)

- The Ducks are starting to make their way on the bubble, but it seems like they probably won't get there without the auto-bid. The only way they get in is with a run to the PAC-12 finals and heavy consideration on the fact that this team played a few months with several injuries. Notre Dame almost got in last year, so this is definitely not our of the questions.

Georgetown (19-13)- NET: 82 vs Tier 1 5-6, vs Tier 2 6-5)

- The Hoyas needed to win yesterday to increase their NET Ranking which is the main issue. At 82, I just don't see how they get selected the first year of the new rankings. However, if Q1 wins are the main decider, the Hoyas could see their name.

Lipscomb (23-7)- NET: 48 vs Tier 1 2-3, vs Tier 2 1-3)

- The Bison have wins at TCU and Liberty which stand out. Being swept by fellow bubbler, Belmont, hurts though. 

Fringe Candidates:

Providence, Memphis,