Bracket Projection- 3/13/16-Final

MIDWEST(1)-Chicago, IL
Des Moines, IA
1 Kansas
16 Austin Peay/Holy Cross
8 Providence
9 USC
Providence, RI
5 Seton Hall
12 Yale
4 Purdue
13 Stony Brook
Denver, CO
6 Notre Dame
11 Gonzaga
3 Utah
14 Hawaii
Brooklyn, NY
7 Iowa
10 St. Bonaventure
2 Villanova
15 Weber State

WEST(4)- Anaheim, CA
Spokane, WA
1 Oregon
16 Southern
8 Texas Tech
9 Connecticut
OK City, OK
5 Maryland
12 UNC-Wilmington
4 Duke
13 Chattanooga
Providence, RI
6 Iowa State
11 Ark-Little Rock
3 Miami (FL)
14 Iona
OK City, OK
7 Wisconsin
10 Wichita State
2 Oklahoma
15 Cal-State Bakersfield

EAST(2)Philadelphia, PA
Raleigh, NC
1 UNC
16 Hampton
8 Colorado
9 VCU
Spokane, WA
5 California
12 Northern Iowa
4 Indiana
13 Stephen F. Austin
Des Moines, IA
6 Baylor
11 Michigan/San Diego State
3 Kentucky
14 Middle Tennessee State
Brooklyn, NY
7 St. Joseph's
10 Pittsburgh
2 West Virginia
15 Green Bay

SOUTH(3)Louisville, KY
St. Louis, MO
1 Michigan State
16 Fairleigh Dickinson/FGCU
8 Oregon State
9 Butler
Denver, CO
5 Arizona
12 South Dakota State
4 Texas A&M
13 Fresno State
St. Louis, MO
6 Texas
11 St. Mary's/Syracuse
3 Xavier
14 Buffalo
Raleigh, NC
7 Dayton
10 Cincinnati
2 Virginia
15 UNC-Asheville

Danger Zone
Last 10 In:   VCU, Butler. Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, St. Bonaventure, Wichita State, Michigan, St. Mary's, San Diego State, Syracuse
First 11 Out: Temple, Monmouth, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Florida, Valparaiso, Georgia, Princeton, Hofstra, George Washington, Tulsa 

Multiple Bid Conferences

ACC- 7
Pac-12-7
Big 12- 7
Big Ten- 7
Big East- 5
A-10- 4

AAC-2

SEC- 2

MVC-2

MWC-2

WCC-2

Bubble Watch

Bubble Watch-Selection Sunday

In a field that has been the hardest to project to this date there are 21 Teams that potential could grab the final 10 spots.

VCU

 VCU does not have too many good wins with only 2 Top 50 wins and were oh so close to huge road win at Dayton that would have greatly increased their chances and gave them the regular season crowd. There is work to do in the A-10 tourney.  They reached the final and lost. Now, they wait. VCU should be win, but could get left out due to a lack of good wins.

Butler

 The Bulldogs have been barely hanging on for weeks now and remain as they defeated Creighton to avoid falling down.  They have the sweep of Seton Hall to go with their win over Purdue and  a few bubble teams. Butler has a little more room to breathe now. They lost the autolock game vs Providence that would have sealed it for them. The Bulldogs likely will get in, but it will be a long couple days. If they miss, it will be because of bad Non-Conference SOS and only having 6 Top 100 wins.

Cincinnati

The Bearcats picked up their best win of the season over SMU after falling to Houston. Cincy is very much on the bubble and could swing either way. Up next is a date in the quarterfinals with fellow bubbler UConn. Win this one, and they will at least be ahead of UConn in pecking order. They fell in a 4OT classic after it seemed victory and safety was present. Now, they will have to wait. Odds are looking pretty good for them. If they miss, it will because of their .500 record vs Top 200 and losing record vs. 150.

Pittsburgh

The Panthers followed their domination of Duke with losses at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. They rebounded again by seating Syracuse for a third time. This win helped a little as they should be ahead of Syracuse in pecking order. They played UNC tough for a while then eventually fell it, so they wait and see. Overall, it looks pretty good, but they still have a 2-7 record vs Top 50. A trip to Dayton could around the corner. How much would the Panthers like to reschedule the Gonzaga game now? Pitt has a been chance of making than missing, but it is not a sure thing. If they miss, it will be because of a lack of good wins and weak non-conference SOS numbers.

St. Bonaventure

 The Bonnies completed their season sweep of St. Joe's giving them another Top 50 win and won at St. Louis. St. Bona is still a bubble team, but their odds are getting better. They were the 3 seed in the A-10 tourney and lost a heartbreaker to Davidson. 1 more win would have been enough. Now, it is in the committee's hand. If they miss, their lack of good wins in their non-conference play will be the reason.

Wichita State

 The Shockers do not have a great at-large profile. Some think they are a lock, but once you dissect their resume that features their  worst loss when they had their entire team. Only win good win, which was a big one against Utah, added with a few other Top 100 wins(at Northern Iowa and a sweep of Evansville) does not sound too good. After losing in semifinals to Northern Iowa, it will be a long week for the Shockers. They get in if the injuries were important to the selection committee. They will miss if they felt that losing to Illinois State with their whole team cancelled out their non-conference performance.

St. Mary's

The Gaels do not have a great at-large profile either with their best wins being a sweep of Gonzaga. They reached the WCC title game and lost to Gonzaga. They are right on the cut line, but with a poor strength of schedule especially their non-conference where they did not leave the state of California, this 27 win team could be left out. It is going to be a long 4 days. If they get in, it will be because they were impresses by their number of wins and regular season crown of a good league. If they miss, their 18-0 record vs 201+ will be why.

Temple

 The Owls beat Memphis and won at Tulane to win the American regular season crown. However, this team needed more good wins. They are only 8-10 vs Top 200, which was why they were left out last season. They make the tourney if they value their 5 Top 50 wins and American regular season title. They miss if their shaky RPI number and 8-10 record vs Top 200 record.

Syracuse

A loss at Florida State is not too damaging, but their overall resume is starting to depreciate and continued after losing to Pitt for a 3rd time. They currently have the worst RPI of all at-large teams on our projected bracket. This will be a nerve wracking few days for Orange fans as their fate could go either way. They had a great case behind their slide during the games with Boeheim until they lost 5 of their last 6 with him. 

Monmouth

The Hawks finished 1st in the MAAC and lost in the MAAC tourney finals. The entertaining Hawks had some great road wins out of conference, but the Georgetown and UCLA ones have really depreciated. With three bad losses, it is going to be very close. They get if they value their road performance. They miss if the selection committee gives a lot of weight to their 16-3 vs Top 200+. 

South Carolina
The Gamecocks lost at home to Georgia and then seemed to be drifting out. But  bounced back at Arkansas preventing another bad loss. A resume with a bad non-conference SOS, lack of good wins, and bad losses is starting to possibly offset their low amount of losses. They lost to UGA for a third time. It's going to be a long night. The Gamecocks will make it if their overall record is valued. If they miss, it will because their poor non-conference SOS, lack of good wins, and 3 bad losses.

Michigan

The Wolverines picked up a huge win over Indiana. They have 4 Top 50 wins, but  only 4 Top 100 wins. Their 4-12 mark against the Top 100 is bad. However, no bad losses is good and only one is outside the Top 50. They really let an opportunity get away when Iowa limped into town and flew away with a win. Now, it's time to join the the other bubblers to see who can sweat the most. Michigan gets in if their 4 good wins are valued and lack of bad losses. They miss is their poor record vs. Top 100 is valued.

Vanderbilt

 The Commodores lost at Texas A&M and are stuck with 2 Top 50 wins, which were both at home.  Advancing to the semis was a must but they could not even make the quarterfinals after picking up their 3rd bad loss of the season. With an RPI in the 60s, only 2 Top 50 wins, a 7-10 mark vs Top 100, and 3 bad losses, their tourney picture is not looking so good. They will have to wait and see how other bubblers play out now.

San Diego State

 The Aztecs have a  50/50 chance of receiving an at-large in this down year for the Mountain West. They get in if the MWC regular season crown, high RPI, and win over California. They miss if their lost to San Diego and lack of Top 100 wins weighs more in the decision.

Florida

 The Gators have an 19-14 record with a lack of good wins. Usually 14 losses is too many. A trip to the finals was needed but lost in a crucial game against Texas A&M. Not likely, but there are definitely being considered. If they make it , it's because of high SOS. If they miss, 14 losses overall is the main factor.

Valparaiso

 The Crusaders are more of a fringe bubble candidate as they could not beat Wright State or Ball State this season. A win at Oregon State is nice, but losing in the Horizon semis to Green Bay may be not be swallowed well by the selection committee. It doesn't look promising, but they will be in discussion at least. They will get in if the value high achieving mid-majors over middling majors. If they do not see it this way, Valpo is NIT bound.

Georgia

 The Bulldogs make it if their SOS figure is valued. If they miss, lack of goods is the best way to put it.

Hofstra

The Pride lost to UNC-Wilmington in the CAA finals. They are 2-2 vs Top 50, 6-4 vs Top 100, but have 5 losses vs RPI 100-200. However, three of those losses are to teams between 100-110. The Pride are likely headed to the NIT, but  after looking into their profile, it is worth mentioning there is a slight chance. If they get in, see Valpo reasoning above.

Tulsa

 The Golden Hurricane got by a surprisingly fiesty USF squad. Work was needed in the American tourney, but they picked up a third bad loss, which was their second to Memphis in a game that the Golden Hurricane were blown out. NIT is probably next.

Princeton

The Tigers picked up their only bad loss which cost them the auto bid. A profile with 1 bad loss and 1 Top 100 win likely will not secure a bid. The Tigers are still an interesting case because of their high RPI and low amount of losses(Most of which are to quality teams). See Valp for reasoning.

George Washington

 The Colonials followed up their costly home loss to VCU by defeating George Mason, but then lost at Davidson. There just is not enough good wins here with only 4 Top 100 wins and a few bad losses too. They are the 5 seed, where they could grab wins over St. Joe's and Dayton to get to the finals. That is the minimum and that may not even be enough.  

Bubbles Burst: Alabama, Stanford, Florida State, Houston, Ohio State, Washington

Safety Zone
AAC: Connecticut
ACC: Virginia, UNC, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Duke
A-10: Dayton, St. Joseph's
Big East: Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence
Big 12: Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas Tech
Big Ten: Iowa, Michigan State, Maryland, Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin
PAC-12: Oregon, Utah, Arizona, California, Colorado, USC, Oregon State
SEC: Kentucky, Texas A&M
WCC: Gonzaga


Danger Zone- Current At-Large Contenders

VCU, Butler, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, St. Bonaventure, Wichita State, St. Mary's,  Temple, Syracuse,  Monmouth, South Carolina, Michigan, Vanderbilt, San Diego State , Florida, Valparaiso, Georgia, Princeton, Hofstra, Tulsa, George Washington

Bracket Projection- 3/12/16

(1)MIDWEST-Chicago, IL
Des Moines, IA
1 Kansas
16 Southern/Holy Cross
8 USC
9 Butler
OK City, OK
5 Texas A&M
12 Ark-Little Rock
4 Purdue
13 UNC-Wilmington
Denver, CO
6 Baylor
11 San Diego State
3 Utah
14 Hawaii
Raleigh, NC
7 Wisconsin
10 St. Bonaventure
2 North Carolina
15 UNC-Asheville

WEST(4)- Anaheim, CA
St. Louis, MO
1 Michigan State
16 Hampton
8 Oregon State
9 St. Joseph's
Providence, RI
5 Kentucky
12 Yale
4 Duke
13 Stony Brook
Des Moines, IA
6 Texas
11 Gonzaga
3 Indiana
14 Stephen F. Austin
Spokane, WA
7 Dayton
10 Pittsburgh
2 Oregon
15 Weber State

EAST(2)Philadelphia, PA
Raleigh, NC
1 Virginia
16 Fairleigh Dickinson/FGCU
8 Colorado
9 Cincinnati
Denver, CO
5 Iowa State
12 South Dakota State
4 California
13 Chattanooga
St. Louis, MO
6 Iowa
11 Syracuse/Monmouth
3 Xavier
14 Middle Tennessee State
Brooklyn, NY
7 Notre Dame
10 Wichita State
2 West Virginia
15 Green Bay

SOUTH(3)Louisville, KY
Brooklyn, NY
1 Villanova
16 Austin Peay
8 Texas Tech
9 Connecticut
Denver, CO
5 Arizona
12 Akron
4 Maryland
13 Northern Iowa
Providence, RI
6 Seton Hall
11 Temple/St. Mary's
3 Miami (FL)
14 Iona
OK City, OK
7 Providence
10 VCU
2 Oklahoma
15 New Mexico State

Danger Zone
Last 10 In:  St. Joseph's, Cincinnati, Connecticut, VCU, Pittsburgh, St. Bonaventure, Wichita State, Temple, St. Mary's, Syracuse, Monmouth
First 8 Out: South Carolina, Michigan, Vanderbilt, Florida, Valparaiso, Georgia, Princeton, Hofstra 

Multiple Bid Conferences

ACC- 7
Pac-12-7
Big 12- 7
Big Ten- 6
Big East- 5
A-10- 4

AAC-3

SEC- 2

MVC-2
MAAC-2
WCC-2

Bracket Projection-3/11/16

(1)MIDWEST-Chicago, IL
Des Moines, IA
1 Kansas
16 Austin Peay/Holy Cross
8 Wisconsin
9 Cincinnati
OK City, OK
5 Kentucky
12 Akron
4 Duke
13 Northern Iowa
Providence, RI
6 Baylor
11 Temple
3 UNC
14 Middle Tennessee State
St. Louis, MO
7 Colorado
10 St. Joseph's
2 Michigan State
15 New Mexico State

WEST(4)- Anaheim, CA
OK City, OK
1 Oklahoma
16 Texas Southern
8 Oregon State
9 Butler
Providence, RI
5 Texas A&M
12 Yale
4 Maryland
13 Chattanooga
Des Moines, IA
6 Dayton
11 Syracuse/Wichita State
3 Indiana
14 Stephen F. Austin
Spokane, WA
7 Seton Hall
10 Pittsburgh
2 Oregon
15 Weber State

EAST(2)Philadelphia, PA
Raleigh, NC
1 Virginia
16 Fairleigh Dickinson/FGCU
8 USC
9 South Carolina
Denver, CO
5 Arizona
12 South Dakota State
4 Purdue
13 UNC-Wilmington
Denver, CO
6 Iowa
11 Gonzaga
3 Utah
14 Hawaii
St. Louis, MO
7 Notre Dame
10 Connecticut
2 Xavier
15 Green Bay

SOUTH(3)Louisville, KY
Brooklyn, NY
1 Villanova
16 Hampton
8 Texas Tech
9 St. Bonaventure
Spokane, WA
5 Iowa State
12 San Diego State
4 California
13 Stony Brook
Raleigh, NC
6 Texas
11 Ark-Little Rock
3 Miami (FL)
14 Iona
Brooklyn, NY
7 Providence
10 Tulsa/VCU
2 West Virginia
15 UNC-Asheville

Danger Zone
Last 10 In:  St. Bonaventure,  South Carolina, St. Joseph's, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Tulsa, VCU, Syracuse, Wichita State 
First 13 Out: Monmouth, St. Mary's, Vanderbilt, Florida, Michigan, Valparaiso, Princeton, George Washington, Hofstra, Washington, Ohio State, Houston, Florida State

Multiple Bid Conferences

ACC- 7
Pac-12-7
Big 12- 7
Big Ten- 6
Big East- 5
A-10- 4

AAC-4

SEC- 3

MVC-2

Conference Tourney Guide

Conference Tournament Previews:

ACC

North Carolina enters as the 1-seed and Virginia as the 2-seed as both enter as favorites to get to the Championship. 

Favorite: Virginia- The Cavaliers have been pretty solid all year long and can clinch a #1 Seed in the NCAA Tournament with an ACC Tournament Championship. 

Sleeper: The Techs (Virginia & Georgia)- Virginia Tech comes in at the #6 Seed and starting to gain momentum. Coming off wins over Pittsburgh and Miami to end the season. They will likely start with Florida State. If they get by FSU, they get Miami. Georgia Tech is the #10 Seed also beating Pittsburgh to end the season has might get another match up with Virginia, who they already beat once. What happens if both upset Miami and Virginia? 

Bubble Teams:

Syracuse

Pittsburgh

Florida State

Georgia Tech

Upset Pick: Georgia Tech over Clemson

Our Pick: Virginia over North Carolina

American Athletic Conference

Favorite: There is no one that stands out as the favorite.

Sleeper: Houston- Even though they are the #2 seed, they are currently on the outside looking in, but appear to arguably playing the best of any of the teams eligible for the AAC Conference Tourney.

Bubble Teams:

Cincinnati

Temple

Tulsa

Connecticut

Houston:

Upset Pick: Memphis over Tulsa

Our Pick: Houston over Cincinnati

Atlantic-10

Favorite: Dayton. They have struggled lately, but they are still the team to beat in the A-10.

Sleeper: George Washington. The Colonials have lots to play for as making the finals is a must to have any shot at an at-large. They should have a quarterfinal match-up against a limping St. Joseph's squad and then a potential semifinal against a shorthanded Dayton team.

Bubble: 

St. Bonaventure

St. Joseph's

VCU

George Washington

Upset Pick: George Washington over Dayton

Our Pick: VCU over George Washington

Big Ten

Favorite: Michigan State- Hard to pick against Tom Izzo in March. The Spartans appear to have the pieces to win the tournament and claim a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Sleeper: Wisconsin- The last two months have been great for the Badgers, so if that is any indication, this roll could be continued.

Bubble:

Wisconsin

Michigan

Ohio State

Upset Pick: Wisconsin over Maryland

Our Pick: Michigan State over Indiana

Big 12

Favorite: Kansas. The #1 team in the land and regular season champs. No more explanation needed.

Sleeper: Texas. The Longhorns have proved they can beat anyone and with Shaka Smart in command, a run is possible.

Upset Pick: Oklahoma over West Virginia

Our Pick: Kansas over Oklahoma

Big East

Favorite: Villanova- Regular season champ and projected #1 seed has lots to play for.

Sleeper: Providence- Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil are players who are capable of a Kemba Walker like run.

Bubble:

Providence

Butler

Upset Pick: Creighton over Seton Hall

Our Pick: Xavier over Villanova

Pac-12

Favorite: Oregon. The Ducks finished first playing one of the toughest conference schedules.

Sleeper: Washington. The Huskies have the most to play for and had nothing but narrow defeats in the games they lost down the stretch.

Bubble: 

Oregon State

USC

Washington

Upset Pick: Arizona over Oregon

Our Pick: Arizona over Utah

SEC

Favorite: Kentucky. It is hard to pick against Coach Cal and the Cats in the SEC.

Sleeper: Georgia. The Bulldogs finished strong and have lots to play for.

Bubble:

South Carolina

Vanderbilt

Florida

Georgia

Alabama

Upset Pick: Georgia over South Carolina

Our Pick: Kentucky over Texas A&M

Bubble Watch- 1 Day Until Selection Sunday

1 Day Until Selection Sunday

Gonzaga has moved to the safe zone after capturing the WCC auto bid. 
Oregon State is safe after defeating Arizona State. 
Providence beat Butler and does not have to worry about being left out of the dance.
St. Joseph's defeated Dayton to move to the A-10 Finals, which moves them to the safe haven.

Wisconsin
- Current Projection: #8 Seed
The Badgers fell at Purdue on Sunday, but overall seem like they should be fine  However, with 5 bad losses, they need to avoid bad losses. Avoiding a bad loss in Big Ten tourney would likely seal it. Of course, they would lose to Nebraska giving them a 6th loss vs 100+ opponents. The Badgers will likely get in, but if they are left out, it is clear they did not choose to accept an at-large team with this many bad losses. Good thing for Wisconsin they have 5 Top 50 wins to lean back on, which should put them in.

Butler

- Current Projection: #9 Seed

 The Bulldogs have been barely hanging on for weeks now and remain as they defeated Creighton to avoid falling down.  They have the sweep of Seton Hall to go with their win over Purdue and  a few bubble teams. Butler has a little more room to breathe now. They lost the autolock game vs Providence that would have sealed it for them. The Bulldogs likely will get in, but it will be a long couple days.

Cincinnati

- Current Projection:  #9 Seed 

The Bearcats picked up their best win of the season over SMU after falling to Houston. Cincy is very much on the bubble and could swing either way. Up next is a date in the quarterfinals with fellow bubbler UConn. Win this one, and they will at least be ahead of UConn in pecking order. They fell in a 4OT classic after it seemed victory and safety was present. Now, they will have to wait. Odds are looking pretty good for them.

Connecticut

- Current Projection: #9 Seed 

The Huskies were dismantled at SMU and bounced back beating the not so mighty golden knights. They beat Cincy in a must win game in the quarters by the ultimate prayer. A loss would have done them in. They are not safe yet. Bubble dweller Temple is up next.

VCU

- Current Projection: #10 Seed 

 VCU does not have too many good wins with only 2 Top 50 wins and were oh so close to huge road win at Dayton that would have greatly increased their chances and gave them the regular season crowd. There is work to do in the A-10 tourney.  Reaching the finals is probably the minimum at this point. Their semifinal game vs. Davidson is huge for the Rams.

Pittsburgh

- Current Projection: #10 Seed

The Panthers followed their domination of Duke with losses at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. They rebounded again by seating Syracuse for a third time. This win helped a little as they should be ahead of Syracuse in pecking order. They played UNC tough for a while then eventually fell it, so they wait and see. Overall, it looks pretty good, but they still have a 2-7 record vs Top 50. A trip to Dayton could around the corner. How much would the Panthers like to reschedule the Gonzaga game now?

St. Bonaventure

- Current Projection: #10 Seed 

 The Bonnies completed their season sweep of St. Joe's giving them another Top 50 win and won at St. Louis. St. Bona is still a bubble team, but their odds are getting better. They were the 3 seed in the A-10 tourney and lost a heartbreaker to Davidson. 1 more win would have been enough. Now, it is in the committee's hand. If they miss, their lack of good wins in their non-conference play will be the reason.

Wichita State

- Current Projection: #10 Seed (Last 4 In)

 The Shockers do not have a great at-large profile. Some think they are a lock, but once you dissect their resume that features their  worst loss when they had their entire team. Only win good win, which was a big one against Utah, added with a few other Top 100 wins(at Northern Iowa and a sweep of Evansville) does not sound too good. After losing in semifinals to Northern Iowa, it will be a long week for the Shockers. 

St. Mary's

- Current Projection: #10 Seed (Last 4 In)

The Gaels do not have a great at-large profile either with their best wins being a sweep of Gonzaga. They reached the WCC title game and lost to Gonzaga. They are right on the cut line, but with a poor strength of schedule especially their non-conference where they did not leave the state of California, this 27 win team could be left out. It is going to be a long 4 days.

Temple

- Current Projection: #11 Seed- American Auto Bid

 The Owls beat Memphis and won at Tulane to win the American regular season crown. However, this team needs more good wins. They are only 8-9 vs Top 200, which was why they were left out last season. A trip to the American finals is a must to have a great chance to dance this March.

Syracuse

- Current Projection: #11 Seed(Last 4 In)

A loss at Florida State is not too damaging, but their overall resume is starting to depreciate and continued after losing to Pitt for a 3rd time. They currently have the worst RPI of all at-large teams on our projected bracket. This will be a nerve wracking few days for Orange fans as their fate could go either way. They had a great case behind their slide during the games with Boeheim until they lost 5 of their last 6 with him.

Monmouth

- Current Projection: #11 Seed (Last 4 In)

The Hawks finished 1st in the MAAC and lost in the MAAC tourney finals. The entertaining Hawks had some great road wins out of conference, but the Georgetown and UCLA ones have really depreciated. With three bad losses, it is going to be very close. 

South Carolina
- Current Projection: 1st 4 Out
The Gamecocks lost at home to Georgia and then seemed to be drifting out. But  bounced back at Arkansas preventing another bad loss. A resume with a bad non-conference SOS, lack of good wins, and bad losses is starting to possibly offset their low amount of losses. They lost to UGA for a third time. It's going to be a long night.

Michigan

- Current Projection: 1st 4 Out

The Wolverines picked up a huge win over Indiana. They have 4 Top 50 wins, but  only 4 Top 100 wins. Their 4-12 mark against the Top 100 is bad. However, no bad losses is good and only one is outside the Top 50. They really let an opportunity get away when Iowa limped into town and flew away with a win. Now, it's time to join the the other bubblers to see who can sweat the most.

Vanderbilt

- Current Projection: 1st 4 Out

 The Commodores lost at Texas A&M and are stuck with 2 Top 50 wins, which were both at home.  Advancing to the semis was a must but they could not even make the quarterfinals after picking up their 3rd bad loss of the season. With an RPI in the 60s, only 2 Top 50 wins, a 7-10 mark vs Top 100, and 3 bad losses, their tourney picture is not looking so good. They will have to wait and see how other bubblers play out now.

San Diego State

- Current Projection: #11 Seed- MWC Auto Bid

 The Aztecs have a very low chance of receiving an at-large in this down year for the Mountain West. A trip to the MWC finals is required to even have a shot.

Little Rock

- Current Projection: #11 Seed- Sun Belt Auto Bid 

The Trojans lost their regular season finale, which was a huge blow to their at-large chances. Maiking the Sun Belt Finals is required to have a chance  for an at-large in case they need it. Facing UT-Arlington for the championship would be ideal if they happened to lose. Winning the Sun Belt auto bid is definitely recommended as their best wins at San Diego State and at Tulsa might not be good enough to fall back on.

Florida

- Current Projection: 1st 4 Out

 The Gators have an 19-14 record with a lack of good wins. Usually 14 losses is too many. A trip to the finals was needed but lost in a crucial game against Texas A&M. Not likely, but there are definitely being considered.

Valparaiso

- Current Projection: Next 4 Out

 The Crusaders are more of a fringe bubble candidate as they could not beat Wright State or Ball State this season. A win at Oregon State is nice, but losing in the Horizon semis to Green Bay may be not be swallowed well by the selection committee. It doesn't look promising, but they will be in discussion at least. 

Georgia

- Current Projection: Next 4 Out

 The Bulldogs are in the semifinals of the SEC tourney. Their profile is pretty barren with no Top 50 wins and a 6-11 mark vs Top 100. The game today vs Kentucky is a must.

Princeton

- Current Projection: Next 4 Out

The Tigers picked up their only bad loss which cost them the auto bid. A profile with 1 bad loss and 1 Top 100 win likely will not secure a bid. The Tigers are still an interesting case because of their high RPI and low amount of losses(Most of which are to quality teams).

Hofstra

- Current Projection: Next 4 Out

The Pride lost to UNC-Wilmington in the CAA finals. They are 2-2 vs Top 50, 6-4 vs Top 100, but have 5 losses vs RPI 100-200. However, three of those losses are to teams between 100-110. The Pride are likely headed to the NIT, but  after looking into their profile, it is worth mentioning there is a slight chance.

Tulsa

- Current Projection: Under Consideration

 The Golden Hurricane got by a surprisingly fiesty USF squad. Work was needed in the American tourney, but they picked up a third bad loss, which was their second to Memphis in a game that the Golden Hurricane were blown out. NIT is probably next.

George Washington

- Current Projection: Under Consideration

 The Colonials followed up their costly home loss to VCU by defeating George Mason, but then lost at Davidson. There just is not enough good wins here with only 4 Top 100 wins and a few bad losses too. They are the 5 seed, where they could grab wins over St. Joe's and Dayton to get to the finals. That is the minimum and that may not even be enough.  

Washington

- Current Projection: Under Consideration

 The Huskies are the 8 seed in the PAC-12 tourney. They beat Stanford and fell short short against Oregon. A trip to the NIT is their likely fate.

Bubbles Burst: Alabama, Stanford, Florida State, Houston, Ohio State

Safety Zone
ACC: Virginia, UNC, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Duke
A-10: Dayton, St. Joseph's
Big East: Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence
Big 12: Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas Tech
Big Ten: Iowa, Michigan State, Maryland, Indiana, Purdue
PAC-12: Oregon, Utah, Arizona, California, Colorado, USC, Oregon State
SEC: Kentucky, Texas A&M
WCC: Gonzaga


Danger Zone(Safest Teams are listed 1st)- Current At-Large Contenders

Wisconsin, Butler, Cincinnati, Connecticut, VCU, Pittsburgh, St. Bonaventure, Wichita State, St. Mary's,  Temple, Syracuse,  Monmouth, South Carolina, Michigan, Vanderbilt, San Diego State, Ark-Little Rock, Florida, Valparaiso, Georgia, Princeton, Hofstra, Tulsa, George Washington, Washington