March Madness is here, and it should be a very dramatic weekend. Beware of bid stealers!
Here is the current breakdown:
Safety Zone
AAC: Houston
ACC: Florida State, Duke, Louisville, Virginia
A-10: Dayton
Big East: Creighton, Villanova, Seton Hall, Butler, Providence
Big 12: Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia,
Big Ten: Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Illinois
MVC: Bradley
MWC: SDSU, Utah State
PAC-12: Oregon, Colorado, Arizona
SEC: Kentucky, Auburn
Southern: ETSU
WCC: Gonzaga, BYU, St. Mary's
Neutral Zone- Almost Locks
Oklahoma, USC, Marquette
Danger Zone- Current At-Large Contenders
Rutgers, Stanford, LSU, Florida, Arizona State, Indiana, Texas Tech, UCLA, Richmond, NC State, Wichita State, Cincinnati, Xavier, Texas, Northern Iowa, Memphis, Mississippi State, Saint Louis, Rhode Island
Rutgers (19-11 NET: 31 vs Tier 1 4-9 vs Tier 2 5-1)
- Rutgers has solid home wins over Seton Hall, Maryland, and Wisconsin which holds strong. Their road record is the only thing holding them back. Only 1 Q3/Q4 loss which is to St. Bonaventure. Odds look good, but the committee has penalized bad road teams before.
Stanford (20-11 NET: 30 vs Tier 1 4-7, vs Tier 2 3-3)
- The Cardinal have a great net ranking and some decent wins including a big one over Oregon. Only 1 Q3/Q4 loss which is to Cal. The 7-10 Q1/Q2 record is not great. A win over Cal in the PAC-12 tourney is a must.
LSU (21-12- NET: 28 vs Tier 1 4-8 vs Tier 2 7-1)
- The Tigers appear safe in most projections but when you dissect their resume to see who they beat, their lack of a signature win could be troublesome.Their only win over a likely tourney team is fellow bubbler Florida. There are others against bubble teams as well. They also have a 1 Q3/Q4 loss which came to Vanderbilt. Avoiding a bad loss in the SEC tourney is a must here.
Florida (19-12)- NET: 29 vs Tier 1 5-9, vs Tier 2 4-3)
- Like LSU, Florida's only real signature win is a home win over Auburn, which could easily fall to a Q2 win still, which leaves a neutral win over Providence before the Friars started playing well. No Q3/Q4 losses here is a plus, but the overall resume does not feel too safe yet.
Arizona State (20-11 NET: 52 vs Tier 1 5-8, vs Tier 4-3)
- Arizona State has 3 Q1A wins and should be fine. A suspect NET of 52 is the only real reason to be worried here. As long as, they keep 0 Q3/Q4 losses on their resume, they should be fine.
Indiana (19-12) NET: 59 Tier 1 4-10, Tier 2 5-2
- The Hoosiers love home cooking. All of their good wins came at home, and the Hoosiers have been dismal on the road falling victim to multiple blowout losses. Wins over Florida State and Michigan State help, but a poor NET ranking and road record could spell trouble for the Hoosiers. A loss to Nebraska could be devastating.
Texas Tech (18-13 NET: 22 vs Tier 1 3-10, vs Tier 2 4-3)
- Texas Tech has several negatives on their resume. Their NET ranking of 22 is the main thing that has kept them on most projected brackets. However, if we were going by RPI, they would rank in the 70s. In addition, they have struggled to win games against Q1/Q2 with a 7-13 record. They do have wins over tourney teams Louisville (N), West Virginia (H), and Oklahoma (H), but only their NET says they should be a tourney team.
UCLA (18-12)- NET: 76 vs Tier 1 6-7, vs Tier 2 3-3
- The Bruins have a historic comeback and find themselves in the at-large picture. Their 6 Q1 wins including 3 Q1A wins look strong. Their main negatives are the NET ranking in the 70s and 2 Q3/Q4 losses. If the NET gets into the Top 70, one would think there wouldn't be much to doubt.
Richmond (24-7) NET: 38 Tier 1 3-4, Tier 2 3-2
- The Spiders have a better resume than VCU from last season which received an 8 seed, so that is a plus for the Spiders. The main problem is that the bubble is much stronger this season. Their Wisconsin (N) and Rhode Island (A) wins are great. Having 18 wins against Q3/Q4 is not. A trip to the A-10 finals seems like it would be enough, but it will largely depend on how the other tourneys go.
NC State (19-12)- NET: 54 vs Tier 1 4-5, vs Tier 2 4-5
- The Wolf Pack are in familiar territory as they seemed to be around the cut line each year. Wins over Duke (H), Wisconsin (H), and Virginia (A) stand out well, but there is not much else helping them. A NET of 54 is not the greatest as well as 2 Q3/Q4 losses. It seems to be a coin flip on where they may end up. If their big 3 wins are valued heavily, they will be in. However, the negatives may outweigh the positives.
- The Shockers are squarely on the bubble and really lack a signature win. Their only win over a sure tourney team is against Oklahoma (H). They do have a good NET of 41 and have no Q3/Q4 losses. In general, their resume is bland, and work is definitely to feel good about their chances.
Cincinnati (20-10)- NET: 51 vs Tier 1 2-6, vs Tier 2 7-0
- The Bearcats are another turnaround story. However, they have 4 Q3 losses and only have 1 win over a sure tourney team (Houston-H). A 7-0 record vs Q2 looks good, but a lack of signature wins teamed with bad losses usually does not go well. The Bearcats need to do work in the AAC tourney.
Xavier (19-12)- NET: 45 vs Tier 1 3-11 vs Tier 2 7-1
- Xavier has done well against non-tourney teams since only 1 loss is against a non-tourney team so far. However, they only have 2 wins over tourney teams Seton Hall (A) and Providence (H). Work is needed to be done here. They have not done well with their many opportunities thus far.
Xavier (19-12)- NET: 45 vs Tier 1 3-11 vs Tier 2 7-1
- Xavier has done well against non-tourney teams since only 1 loss is against a non-tourney team so far. However, they only have 2 wins over tourney teams Seton Hall (A) and Providence (H). Work is needed to be done here. They have not done well with their many opportunities thus far.
Texas (19-12) NET: 69 Tier 1 5-8, Tier 2 2-4
- The Longhorns have battled back into strong consideration. They have 0 Q3/Q4 losses. However, a NET of 69 and no true signature win outside of West Virginia (H) puts Texas in dangerous waters. They meet Texas Tech in possible elimination/play in game.
Northern Iowa (23-6) NET: 48 Tier 1 1-1, Tier 2 3-2
- The Panthers lost to Drake in the quarterfinals and now must wait. Their resume is better than Belmont's from last season. As mentioned though, the bubble is stronger this season. The 3 Q3 losses don't help, but the rest of the resume looks pretty good for a mid-major candidate. It is pretty much up to what the committee wants to do with this high achieving mid-major.
Memphis (21-10) NET: 58 Tier 1 2-5, Tier 2 6-2
- Like Cincy, Memphis does not have much to offer for quality wins and has 3 Q3 losses.Wins over Houston (H), Tennessee (A), and NC State (N) stand out. Temple was in the 1st 4 last season in which their resume is better than Memphis from this season. That's not good for the Tigers.
Mississippi State (20-11)- NET: 50 vs Tier 1 2-7, vs Tier 2 6-2)
- The Bulldogs are in the mix but clearly have work to do. Their win at Florida is their only one over a tourney team, and they also have a pair of Q3 losses. A deep run in the SEC tourney is needed.
Saint Louis (22-8)- NET: 49 vs Tier 1 2-5, vs Tier 2 2-2)
- Wins at fellow bubblers Richmond and URI are great. Only 1 Q3/Q4 loss is not bad either. SLU may get round 3 against Dayton in which they almost won in their previous meetings. A win over Dayton could really put them in.
Rhode Island (21-9)- NET: 57 vs Tier 1 1-6, vs Tier 2 7-2)
- URI has a great Q2 record with only 1 bad loss. Their lack of a great win does not help, and they wouldn't get Dayton until the A-10 final. URI has to make the final to have somewhat of a chance here.
Fringe Candidates:
Purdue, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, Oregon State, UConn, Tulsa, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame
