M+ J's College Football Week 5 Upset Watch/Picks

UPSET WATCH

Syracuse over Clemson
Syracuse upset Clemson last season and are much improved this season. Clemson is not going to overlook them this time. However, the Tigers have shown some vulnerability so far.

Texas Tech over West Virginia
Texas Tech's high scoring offense has shown to be a more complete team than past years. West Virginia can score a lot too. This game should be high scoring and should come down to whoever plays better defense.

Penn State over Ohio State
A whiteout in Happy Valley is what the Buckeyes will be playing in front of. Many college football fans are hoping Penn State can pull it off. It happened last time Ohio State came to town.

Arizona over USC

This is the disappointment bowl. Arizona has looked better their last couple games, and BYU has shown to be a pretty good team. USC has been disappointing, and it could continue on the road today. However, Clay Helton teams tend to start slow and finish strong, so this could be when they begin to turn the corner.

Weekend Picks

Score Projections:

Clemson 28, Syracuse 25
 West Virginia 63, Texas Tech 52
Oklahoma State 48, Kansas 17
NC State 31, Virginia 24
Georgia 55, Tennessee 3
Oklahoma 51, Baylor 21
UCF 47, Pittsburgh 15
Texas 28, Kansas State 17
Florida State 17, Louisville 14
Auburn 48, Southern Miss 10
Michigan 29, Northwestern 19 
Mississippi State 26, Florida 21
Washington State 24, Utah 21
Duke 28, Virginia Tech 24
TCU 24, Iowa State 16
Stanford 25, Notre Dame 22
Kentucky 31, South Carolina 17
Washington 21, BYU 10
LSU 34, Ole Miss 12
California 28, Oregon 27
Arizona 35, USC 32


BLOWOUT ALERT OF THE WEEK PROJECTION:

Alabama 63, Louisiana 6

SNOOZE FEST OF THE WEEK PROJECTION:

Michigan State 28, Central Michigan 7

PAINT DRIER OF THE WEEK PROJECTION:

Eastern Michigan 17, Northern Illinois 12

TOILET BOWL OF THE WEEK PROJECTION:

Purdue 31, Nebraska 23

M+ J's College Football Week 4 Upset Watch/Picks

UPSET WATCH

Maine over Central Michigan
Maine has already upset Western Kentucky. Central Michigan is winless and has been bad so far. This is best chance this week for an FCS team to be an FBS team.

Northern Illinois over Florida State
Florida State is off to a rough start with their only win coming against Samford, which they barely squeaked by. Northern Illinois has not been too great, so there is no guarantee. 

Texas over TCU
TCU failed to upset Ohio State last week while Texas dismantled USC. TCU comes to Austin and an upset seems possible here.

Kentucky over Mississippi State

Kentucky won at Florida ending the long losing streak to the Gators. The Bulldogs come to Lexington in a potential trap game against a much improved Kentucky team.

Indiana over Michigan State
Michigan State lost at Arizona State, who just lost at San Diego State. The Spartans travel to Indiana and are on upset alert.

Iowa over Wisconsin
Wisconsin lost at home to BYU and travel to Indiana. BYU is much improved this season but has already lost at home to Cal. Iowa is always tough at home.

Weekend Picks

Score Projections:

Washington State 31, USC 24
 Georgia 45, Missouri 20
Maryland 28, Minnesota 24
Michigan 49, Nebraska 14
Boston College 31, Purdue 27
Notre Dame 17, Wake Forest 10
North Carolina 24, Pitt 21
Virginia 33, Louisville 23
Alabama 52, Texas A&M 21
Baylor 27, Kansas 24
West Virginia 42, Kansas State 17
Clemson 42, Georgia Tech 14
Miami (FL) 48, FIU 14
Vanderbilt 28, South Carolina 14
Arizona 35, Oregon State 27
Texas 31, TCU 28
BYU 24, McNeese St. 3
Kentucky 34, Mississippi State 27
LSU 37, Louisiana Tech 14
Oklahoma 42, Army 17
Oklahoma State 55, Texas Tech 48
Auburn 49, Arkansas 0
Indiana 20, Michigan State 18
Stanford 34, Oregon 17
Iowa 21, Wisconsin 20
Washington 38, Arizona State 14

BLOWOUT ALERT OF THE WEEK PROJECTION:

Ohio State 63, Tulane 7

SNOOZE FEST OF THE WEEK PROJECTION:

Virginia Tech 41, Old Dominion 3

PAINT DRIER OF THE WEEK PROJECTION:

Tennessee 16, Florida 15

TOILET BOWL OF THE WEEK PROJECTION:

New Mexico State 24, UTEP 14

M+ J's College Football Week 3 Upset Watch/Picks

It has been a crazy few weeks which caused a delay for our 1st post of the season. Good thing , the first couple weeks were pretty uneventful with predictable results for the most part. Will there finally be some surprises today?

UPSET WATCH

Syracuse over Florida State
FSU almost lost to Samford last week after getting handled by Virginia Tech. This doesn't appear to be a very good Seminoles team this season. A trip to the Carrier Dome against Eric Dungey and Co. seems like an obvious choice for an upset.

Toledo over Miami (FL)
Miami started with an unimpressive opener against LSU and now have a potential trap game at Toledo, where the Rockets could cause fits for the Hurricanes.

North Texas over Arkansas
Arkansas fell to a 0-2 Colorado State last week showing that they could likely find themselves at the bottom of the SEC. An improved and undefeated North Texas team comes to town to try to turn the Hogs to ham on their home field.

Ohio over Virginia
Each year, Virginia is unpredictable, so it is hard to predict them being upset. However, the past shows that they have blown games like this before especially after losing to Indiana last week.

Wofford over Wyoming

There are not too many FCS vs FBS games that seem like potential upsets. This one seems to have the best chance since Wofford is pretty good for an FCS team and Wyoming has not shown well so far.

TCU over Ohio State
Ohio State is traveling to TCU with lots of talk about a scandal looming over them. Will this distract them in this early big test on the road?

URI over UConn
UConn had been bad in both loses and URI comes in at 2-0 and almost defeating a FBS team last season. The Rams almost certainly will be ready to take down their rival from their border state. Will the Huskies be ready?

Weekend Picks

Score Projections:

Georgia 42, Middle  Tennessee 3
 Rutgers 27, Kansas 21
Maryland 38, Temple 7
Oklahoma 49, Iowa State 28
Clemson 35, Georgia Southern 14
Syracuse 34, Florida State 24
Miami (FL) 28, Toledo 24
Nebraska 31, Troy 22
Penn State 56, Kent State 7
Georgia Tech 28, Pittsburgh 10
Stanford 41, UC Davis 14
Notre Dame 24, Vanderbilt 16
Auburn 31, LSU 23
South Florida 33, Illinois 24
Michigan 37, SMU 10
Baylor 26, Duke 20
Wisconsin 24, BYU 3
Boise State 31, Oklahoma State 28
North Texas 34, Arkansas 31
Houston 41, Texas Tech 31
Alabama 45, Ole Miss 24
Nevada 37, Oregon State 27
Mississippi State 35, Louisiana 7
Missouri 19, Purdue 10
USC 30, Texas 17
TCU 31, Ohio State 27
Arizona State 21, San Diego State 17
Fresno State 27, UCLA 23

BLOWOUT ALERT OF THE WEEK PROJECTION:

Oregon 77, San Jose State 10

SNOOZE FEST OF THE WEEK PROJECTION:

Tennessee 38, UTEP 10

PAINT DRIER OF THE WEEK PROJECTION:

Washington 16, Utah 9

TOILET BOWL OF THE WEEK PROJECTION:

Northern Illinois 31, Central Michigan 3

Biggest Seeding Questions

As the Selection Show began, we went into it wanting to hate it since they decided to move away from the suspenseful format that kept viewers on the edge of their seats throughout the show wondering who was getting in until the last 11 seed was revealed. Surprisingly, this format was better than we expected, but we don't think it will ever beat the traditional way though. 

With this being said, there were a few head scratchers in the seeding department.

1. Most Over Seeded Team: Creighton
- Many people predicted the Bluejays as a #10 because they had only 2 Q1 wins (H-Villanova and N-UCLA). There was a few good Q2 home wins, but if there is this point system that values quality Q1 wins, Creighton should have been closer to the cut line. Instead, they were rewarded with a #8 seed.

2. Most Under Seeded Team: Providence
- Many people predicted the Friars to be a 7 or 8 but fell victim to a seed bump that moved them to a 10 from a 9. This was because Creighton and Seton Hall were already #8 seeds in the brackets that didn't have Xavier or Villanova's 1 seed. Since they cannot face a Big East opponent to the Sweet Sixteen, they were pumped. However, the Friars beat Xavier twice and Villanova once giving them 5 Q1 wins. Their resume was clearly better than Creighton's, but somehow are seeded 2 lines lower.

3. CS- Fullerton a 15 seed and Penn a 16 seed?
- When you compare the 2 teams, Penn's resume is better in almost every aspect and even look much better when watching them. Surprisingly, this was't the only odd thing on these lines.

4. Xavier Plays Winner of Teams 67 and 68, Not Virginia
- Virginia is the overall #1 seed and got matched with UMBC instead of the winner of 67/68. Xavier, the 4th #1 seed, gets the winner instead. Obviously, a 16 seed has never beat a #1, and UMBC likely will not be the first one too. 

5. Injuries Mattered For Some Teams' Seeding But Not Others
 a. Arizona lost 4 of their 7 games when a key player was out, and it didn't seem to matter in their final seed
 b. Texas Tech received a 3 seed instead of being lower since they lost a few games when star Keenan Evans was out with an injury.
 c. Wichita State started the season without Marcus McDuffie, and it seemed to help land them a 4 seed.
 d. Texas A&M struggled in December and January as they had multiple key pieces out. They managed to get 7 Q1 wins. We did get their seed correct, but thought that they have been higher if injuries were considered.

6. Notre Dame was 1st Team out?
 a. Notre Dame ended as the 1st team out since they lost most of their games when Bonzie Colson was hurt. At the beginning of the season, they beat short handed Wichita State in the Maui before being upset by Ball State and Indiana, which were 2 bad losses in which Bonzie played in. We still cannot figure why they were this close.
b. If Notre Dame was this close, then why wasn't Stanford considered. Stanford started the season 6-7 without Dorian Pickens. When he returned, he led them to 4th place in the PAC-12. Had Pickens been available for out of conference play, this team may have picked up the wins needed to make the dance.

2018 NCAA Bracket Projection- 3/11/18-FINAL

SOUTH(1)- Atlanta, GA
Charlotte, NC
1 Virginia
16 LIU-Brooklyn/TX-Southern 
8 Nevada
9 Butler
Boise, ID
5 Gonzaga
12 South Dakota State
4 Kentucky
13 Murray State
Detroit, MI
6 Florida
11 Texas/Arizona State
3 Michigan
14 Wright State
Nashville, TN
7 Texas A&M
10 Kansas State
2 Cincinnati
15 Penn

WEST(4)-Los Angeles, CA
Pittsburgh, PA
1 Xavier
16 UMBC
8 Rhode Island
9 NC State
San Diego, CA
5 Clemson
12 New Mexico State
4 Auburn
13 NC-Greensboro
San Diego, CA
6 Miami (FL)
11 Loyola-Chicago
3 Arizona
14 Montana
Nashville, TN
7 Seton Hall
10 Oklahoma
2 Duke
15 Lipscomb


EAST(2)-Boston, MA
Pittsburgh, PA
1 Villanova
16 Radford/NC Central
8 Virginia Tech
9 Alabama
Boise, ID
5 Wichita State
12 San Diego State
4 West Virginia
13 Marshall
Wichita, KS
6 Arkansas
11 Davidson
3 Michigan State
14 Stephen F. Austin
Charlotte, NC
7 TCU
10 Creighton
2 North Carolina
15 Georgia State

MIDWEST(3)-Omaha, NE
Wichita, KS
1 Kansas
16 CS-Fullerton
8 Providence
9 UCLA
Dallas, TX
5 Houston
12 Buffalo
4 Texas Tech
13 College of Charleston
Dallas, TX
6 Ohio State
11 USC/St. Bonaventure
3 Tennessee
14 Bucknell
Detroit, MI
7 Missouri
10 Florida State
2 Purdue
15 Iona

Danger Zone
Last 10 in:  Butler, UCLA, Florida State, Oklahoma, Creighton, Kansas State, St. Bonaventure, USC, Texas, Arizona State 
First 7 Out:   Syracuse, Marquette, St. Mary's, MTSU, Louisville, Utah, Baylor

Multiple Bid Conferences

ACC-8
SEC-8
Big 12- 7
Big East-6

Pac-12- 4

Big Ten- 4
AAC-3

A-10- 3
MWC-2

2018 NCAA Basketball Bracket Projection- 3/9/18

SOUTH(1)- Atlanta, GA
Charlotte, NC
1 Virginia
16 LIU-Brooklyn/Ark.-Pine Bluff
8 Providence
9 St. Bonaventure
Boise, ID
5 Gonzaga
12 Buffalo
4 Wichita State
13 Murray State
Detroit, MI
6 Houston
11 Arizona State/Syracuse
3 Michigan
14 Bucknell
Nashville, TN
7 Miami (FL)
10 Butler
2 Auburn
15 Stephen F. Austin

WEST(4)-Los Angeles, CA
Wichita, KS
1 Kansas
16 UC-Santa Barbara
8 Nevada
9 NC State
San Diego, CA
5 Clemson
12 Loyola-Chicago
4 Arizona
13 Louisiana
Wichita, KS
6 Texas A&M
11 Oklahoma
3 Michigan State
14 Montana
Nashville, TN
7 Seton Hall
10 Texas
2 North Carolina
15 Penn


EAST(2)-Boston, MA
Pittsburgh, PA
1 Villanova
16 Radford/Hampton
8 Rhode Island
9 Virginia Tech
Boise, ID
5 Kentucky
12 Western Kentucky
4 West Virginia
13 South Dakota State
Dallas, TX
6 Ohio State
11 USC
3 Tennessee
14 College of Charleston
Charlotte, NC
7 TCU
10 Alabama
2 Duke
15 Lipscomb

MIDWEST(3)-Omaha, NE
Pittsburgh, PA
1 Xavier
16 Iona
8 Florida State
9 UCLA
San Diego, CA
5 Florida
12 New Mexico State
4 Texas Tech
13 Vermont
Dallas, TX
6 Arkansas
11 Louisville/Kansas State
3 Cincinnati
14 NC-Greensboro
Detroit, MI
7 Missouri
10 Creighton
2 Purdue
15 Wright State

Danger Zone
Last 10 in:  Butler, Creighton, Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, USC, Louisville, Arizona State, Syracuse, Kansas State
First 15 Out:   Marquette, Middle Tennessee State, St. Mary's, Utah, Baylor, Oregon, Notre Dame, Georgia, Oklahoma State, Washington,  Mississippi State, LSU, Penn State, Boise State, Nebraska

Multiple Bid Conferences

ACC-10
SEC-8
Big 12- 7
Big East-6

Pac-12- 4

Big Ten- 4
AAC-3

A-10- 2

NCAA Basketball Bubble Watch- 3/6/18

With only 5 days until Selection Sunday, Championship Week is really beginning to get going. Currently, there are  several bubble teams with some that could play their way out and some hoping to play their way in. Either way, March Madness is here, and it should be a very dramatic week. Beware of bid stealers!

Here is the current breakdown:


Safety Zone
AAC: Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
ACC: Virginia, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, Miami (FL)
A-10: 
Big East: Xavier, Villanova, Seton Hall, Creighton
Big 12: Texas Tech, Kansas, West Virginia, TCU
Big Ten: Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan
MVC: Loyola-Chicago
MWC:
PAC-12: Arizona
SEC: Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Florida
WCC: Gonzaga

Neutral Zone- Almost Locks
Oklahoma, Missouri, Rhode Island, Florida State, NC State,Virginia Tech, Nevada

Danger Zone- Current At-Large Contenders
St. Bonaventure, Butler, UCLA, Texas, Arizona State, USC, Providence, Middle Tennessee, St. Mary's, Syracuse, Alabama, Marquette, Washington, Kansas State, Baylor, Utah, Louisville, Boise State, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Mississippi State, New Mexico State, LSU, Nebraska, Penn State, 

St. Bonaventure (24-6)- RPI: 21 vs Tier 1 3-2, vs Tier 2 4-2
- The Bonnies beat URI and currently have a great overall profile with the exception of their 2 Tier 3/4 losses. It is important that they avoid losses to anyone besides URI, which means winning out until the A-10 championship.

Butler (19-12 RPI: 45 vs Tier 1 3-10, vs Tier 2 4-1)

- The Bulldogs only have three Tier 1 wins and haven't played well on the road this season. They get a third chance at Seton Hall. A win would probably solidify their chances. A loss would raise some question marks as the Bulldogs would have to wait to find out Sunday.

UCLA (20-10- RPI: 36 vs Tier 1 3-7, vs Tier 2 5-1)

- The Bruins now have 3 signature victories away from home after sweeping USC. With three strong Tier 1 wins and a good RPI, UCLA is in good position and probably just needs to beat Stanford in the quarterfinals.

Texas (18-13)- RPI: 48 vs Tier 1 5-10, vs Tier 2 3-3)

- The Longhorns have plenty of good wins and no bad losses. Good win over West Virginia on Saturday. The Longhorns need to avoid a bad loss to Iowa State. A loss would send them back the other way and could end their at-large hopes.

Arizona State (20-10  RPI: 59 vs Tier 1 3-5, vs Tier 4-4)

- Arizona State's wins at Kansas and over Xavier (N) have carried them to the finish line so far. At 8-10 in the Pac-12, the Sun Devils probably need to at least beat Colorado to feel safe. A loss would have them sweating it out Sunday.

USC (21-10) RPI: 34 Tier 1 4-6, Tier 2 5-3

- The Trojans picked up a huge win at Utah to go with their wins over Middle Tennessee and New Mexico State in Hawaii. Their resume looks great, but the lack of signature win is what stands out. The Trojans will play either Washington or Oregon State in the quarterfinals. A win the quarterfinals in recommended to feel better about their chances.

Providence (19-12 RPI: 42 vs Tier 1 3-8, vs Tier 2 5-1)

- The Friars play Creighton this week. With only three Tier 1 wins, Providence can feel better about their chances with a win. With three bad losses, a loss to Creighton and the Friars will have to sweat it out until Sunday.

Middle Tennessee State (23-6)- RPI: 28 vs Tier 1 2-3, vs Tier 2 3-1

- The Blue Raiders are the favorite in the C-USA tourney. Winning the auto bid is recommended. Their at-large profile took a hit by losing to Marshall at home Saturday. Anything short of making it to the C-USA Championship could be fatal to their at-large hopes.

Syracuse (19-12) RPI: 39 Tier 1 3-7, Tier 2 3-3

- The Orange picked up a big win against Clemson and now play Wake Forest in the ACC Tournament. Need to avoid a damaging loss here and beat North Carolina to feel good about their chances.

Alabama (17-14 RPI: 58 vs Tier 1 5-6, vs Tier 2 4-6)

- The Crimson Tide have plenty of quality wins for an at-large bid. Their high number of losses is what is holding them back. Alabama can't afford to lose to Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament. A loss will send them to the NIT.

St. Mary's (28-5)- RPI: 43 vs Tier 1 2-1, vs Tier 2 2-2 
- Their overall record and win at Gonzaga carried them for a while. With 2 recent defeats especially the one at San Francisco, the margin for error is small.

Marquette (18-12) RPI: 57 Tier 1 4-7, Tier 2 4-3
- The Golden Eagles scored a strong Tier 2 win over Creighton on Saturday to completed the season sweep. They get DePaul in the first round. A win here and over Villanova would likely get them in. A loss to the Blue Demons would pack their bags to the NIT.

Washington (20-11)- RPI: 63 vs Tier 1 3-6, vs Tier 2 2-4

- The Huskies have 2 great wins with the wins at Kansas and over Arizona. A home loss to Oregon was damaging as their RPI dropped almost 20 spots. The Huskies need to beat Oregon State and USC if they want to feel better about their chances. A loss to the Beavers would send them to the NIT.

Kansas State  (21-10)- RPI: 62 vs Tier 1 3-7 vs Tier 2 6-3
- Kansas State plays TCU in the quarterfinals after a 4th place finish. 10-8 in the Big 12 sounds good enough but a bad N-SOS and lack of good wins stands out. With only three Tier 1 wins(TCU, at Texas, & at Baylor), the Wildcats need to beat TCU to enhance their chances. A loss here would send their RPI down around 70.

Baylor (18-13) RPI: 61 Tier 1 4-10, Tier 2 3-3

- Baylor has played well lately to move into the bubble picture. They are still 10-13 against Tier 1, 2, and 3 combined. This usually keeps you out of the tournament. Work in needed in the Big 12 tournament. A great opportunity against West Virginia awaits. Win this game and their odds get better.

Utah (19-10) RPI: 47 Tier 1 3-6, Tier 2 4-3

- The Utes have three Tier 1 wins(at Arizona State, at Washington, at Oregon) and two strong Tier 2 wins over Missouri and UCLA at home. The Utes will play Oregon or Washington State in the quarterfinals. A run to the Pac-12 championship game is recommended.

Louisville (19-12) RPI: 46 Tier 1 3-10, Tier 2 1-2

- Louisville has struggled against good competition all season as shown with their 3-10 Tier 1 record with their best win coming at Florida State.  The Cardinals need to beat Florida State to stay in the at-large conversation. A win over FSU and Virginia would be enough to get them in. A loss to the Seminoles would likely them to the NIT.

Boise State (22-7)- RPI: 41 vs Tier 1 2-2, vs Tier 2 4-3)

- The Broncos saw their resume get better with Loyola-Chicago and Oregon's RPI's soaring up. It is hard to see this team getting an at-large, but if enough teams ahead of them damage their profile, you never know. Winning the MWC tournament is recommended.

Oklahoma State (18-13)- RPI: 88 vs Tier 1 5-10, vs Tier 2 4-3)

- The Cowboys became the first team to sweep Kansas in the Bill Self era. They have great wins but have a bad RPI and N-SOS. No team has ever received an at large with an RPI worse than 75. Ok State must advance to Big 12 semis to feel decent about their chances.

Oregon (20-11)- RPI: 70 vs Tier 1 3-5, vs Tier 2 4-3)

- The Ducks picked up another Tier 1 win at Washington but suffered a Tier 3 loss at Washington State. The results offset as their position remains the same. The Ducks need to beat Washington State, Utah, and USC to have any chance at an at-large bid.

Mississippi State (20-10)- RPI: 72 vs Tier 1 2-7, vs Tier 2 3-3)

- The Bulldogs played a very bad N-SOS, which really shows now as their RPI is still in the late 60s. There are some good wins, but nothing on this resume is screaming pick me. A loss to LSU was damaging as they need to do work in the SEC Tourney.                                                                                    

Notre Dame (18-13)- RPI: 69 vs Tier 1 2-8, vs Tier 2 4-2)

- Bonzie Colson has returned to the Irish making them an interesting discussion for the selection committee. However, even though they did beat a shorthanded Wichita State with home, they also lost at home to Ball State and at a neutral site to Indiana, which are bad losses. The Irish need to beat Pitt, Va Tech, and Duke. Form them we will see where they stand.

Fringe Candidates:

New Mexico State, LSU, Nebraska, Penn State, Buffalo