Bubble Watch: March 13th- 1 Day Until Selection Sunday

 With only 1 day until Selection Sunday, Championship Week continues today with several bubble teams and at-large locks in action. In the most unusual season of all time featuring limited schedules and a wide range of games played, it is hard to know exactly how the committee will view bubble teams this year. Therefore, it is hard to use past seasons as a precedent.

With the possible COVID outbreak, we will see if at-large locks will drop from their conference tourneys.

March Madness is here, and it should be a very dramatic day. Beware of bid thieves!

Possible Bid Thieves:

Big East- Georgetown 

Pac-12- Oregon State

American- Memphis, Cincinnati, or Wichita State

Update:

North Carolina, Florida, Rutgers, Connecticut, and San Diego State move into the Safety Zone after their wins. 

St. Bonaventure and LSU move into Neutral Zone since most of the teams behind them lost and cannot pass them.

Louisville and Xavier now must sweat it out until Sunday. 

NC State and Stanford are now more of a fringe candidates.  Providence and Marquette have been dropped from fringe status.

Oregon State and Georgetown are fringe candidates needing a win today but both would likely need the AQ to dance.

Today's Bubble Teams in Action:

Wichita State (vs. Cincinnati)

Memphis (vs. Houston)

Utah State (vs. San Diego State) 

Here is the current breakdown:


Safety Zone

A-10:

AAC: Houston

ACC: Virginia, Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina

Big 12: Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma 

Big East: Villanova, Creighton, Connecticut

Big Ten: Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Rutgers

MVC: Loyola-Chicago

MWC: San Diego State

Pac-12: USC, Colorado, Oregon

SEC: Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, Florida, LSU

WCC: Gonzaga, BYU

Neutral Zone- Almost Locks
St. Bonaventure, Virginia Tech

Danger Zone- Current At-Large Contenders

Maryland, VCU, Georgia Tech, UCLA, Michigan State, Utah State, Drake, Wichita State, Colorado State, Syracuse, Louisville, Saint Louis, Boise State, Ole Miss, Seton Hall, Xavier, Memphis, St. John's, Stanford, NC State, Oregon State, SMU

Maryland (15-13 NET: 33 vs Q1 5-10, vs Q2 3-3)

- The Terrapins were almost a lock and then they lost at Northwestern and at home to Penn State putting them in the danger zone. The wins at Illinois and Wisconsin are great as well as their wins over Purdue and at Rutgers. However, a 8-13 mark against Q1/Q2 is not good. Their strong road Q1 wins will likely carry them into the field.

VCU (19-6  NET: 34 vs Q1 2-4, vs Q2 7-0)

- The Rams like the Tar Heels have a good quantity of Q1/Q2 wins, but they lack quality as a home win over St. Bona is their best so far. The Rams and the Bonnies square off for the A-10 auto bid. A loss and the Rams will sweat it out. As long as there are not many bid stealers or teams playing their way in, VCU should dance. The 2 Q3 losses could hurt them in the long run though.

Georgia Tech (16-8) NET: 38 Q1 2-6, Q2 6-0)

- The Yellow Jackets have fared well in ACC play at home, which makes up for their early home losses to Mercer and Georgia State. Their wins at Virginia Tech and against Florida State are their best wins with a collection of home wins over decent opponents. Avoiding a bad loss to Miami (FL) was huge for the Yellow Jackets. A win over Virginia would have been nice, but the Yellow Jackets have now advanced to the ACC final with Virginia withdrawing from the ACC tourney. One more win and GA Tech will have the auto bid. Odds are very likely they will dance regardless.

UCLA (17-9- NET: 47 vs Q1 1 2-6 vs Q2 3-3)

- The Bruins have struggled lately losing 4 in a row putting now them on the bubble. Their overall number of quality wins is not great with their best win being against Colorado. The sweep of Arizona is great too, but it is overlooked since the wildcats are unable to dance. A loss to Oregon State stings, and the Bruins must now wait and see.  

Michigan State (15-12 NET: 70 vs Q1 5-11, vs Q2 2 4-1)

- The Spartans have been a home court hero and have wins over Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio State. However, they own several blowout losses and a bad non-conference strength of schedule. Team this with a NET ranking of 70 and an overall record of 15-12, the Spartans are clearly not a lock. The loss against Maryland in their first Big Ten game puts them in icy waters. However, the committee has shown that Q1 wins have been their top credential when selecting teams.

Utah State (19-7) NET: 37 Q1 2-4, vs Q2 2-1

- The Aggies have two Q1 wins over San Diego State as well as two strong Q2 win over Colorado State. Their worst losses are at UNLV and South Dakota State(Neutral). They also have 5 losses against current tournament teams. The win last night over the Rams might be enough to get them in. However, beating San Diego State today will lead to a stress-free Selection Sunday.

Drake (23-4 NET: 43 Q1 1-2, Q2  5-0)

- The Bulldogs lost in the MVC final, so the waiting game has begun. Drake has only lost one game with their full team. Hemphill will be back for the tourney, but Penn would not. Their resume will be very difficult to judge as they have battled injuries and still been competitive picking up a win over Loyola and Missouri State while shorthanded. Drake seems deserving giving their obstacles they have overcome especially with Hemphill returning. Their non-conference strength of schedule could come back to haunt them though. 

Wichita State (14-4 NET: 64 Q1 2-3, vs Q2 2 2-1)
- The Shockers won the American regular season, but are squarely on the bubble due to a low NET ranking. No bad losses and a 4-4 record against Q1/Q2 including wins over Houston and at Ole Miss would make one think this team is safe. It is best for the Shockers to win the Auto Bid, but at worst need to make the final to feel great about their at-large chances. Avoiding a bad loss against USF saved their season. They must avoid a bad loss to Cincinnati today to keep their hopes alive.

Syracuse (16-9 NET: 40 vs Q1 1-7, vs Q2 6-1)

- The Orange have one Q1 win(at NC State). They have a decent collection of Q2 wins against North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Clemson, and NC State(home). Their worst loss is against Pittsburgh at home. The win over NC State in the ACC tourney kept them in the conversation, but a loss at the buzzer to Virginia stings as a missed opportunity. It will be a long wait for the Orange as they sit squarely on the bubble. Hopefully, they avoid the possible COVID exposure from Virginia.

Colorado State (17-7 NET: 51 vs Q1 2-4, vs Q2 1-2)

- The Rams have no bad losses and have a pair of great road wins at San Diego State and Utah State. The overall lack of Q1/Q2 wins is their main weakness. The Rams fell short yesterday against the Aggies. They will now wait to see if they hear their name tomorrow. 2 Q1 wins on the road over two likely tourney teams are stronger than other bubble teams- Syracuse, Louisville, and Drake. 

Louisville (13-7 NET: 56 vs Q1 1-6, vs Q2 6-0)
- Louisville lost to Duke in the ACC 2nd Round and now must sweat it out. The Cardinal have been given too much credit for a relatively weak overall profile. A lack of great wins especially against tourney teams have them on the bubble. Their only win over a likely tourney team was against Virginia Tech. Outside of that, their sweep of Duke might be their next most impressive thing on the resume. When you dissect this resume, it is not great as it almost feels their name is carrying weight on the bracket predictions now. 

Saint Louis (14-6)- NET: 45 vs Q1 2-3, vs Q2 2-1

- Covid has hurt Saint Louis' season as both bad losses came after their Covid pause. They lost in the semi-finals of the A-10 conference tournament and will now wait to see if their name will be called. They have two Q1 wins against tournament teams(LSU and St. Bonaventure). They also have a win against bubble team NC State. How will the committee value the Bilikens season?

Boise State (17-8) NET: 50 Q1 2-4, vs Q2 2-3

- The Broncos have went 5-7 in their last 12 games after winning 13 straight. Their Q1 wins include solid road wins at BYU and at Colorado State. They also swept bubble team Utah State at home. They have one bad loss at home against Fresno State. A loss to Nevada in the quarters stings, and now the Broncos must wait it out. They could fall either way.

Ole Miss (16-11)- NET: 53 vs Q1 3-5, vs Q2 4-4

- The Rebels have been hot and cold with wins over Missouri twice and Tennessee. They have a couple Q3 losses against Georgia and Mississippi State at home. The close loss to LSU stings as the Rebels will have to sweat it out tomorrow. 5 losses against non-tournament teams is their biggest flaw. 

Xavier  (13-8 NET: 59 vs Q2 1-3 vs Q2 5-4)

- Xavier has not played many Q1 games but own a win against Creighton and a good Q2 win over Oklahoma. The Musketeers picked up their first Q3/Q4 loss in the Big East tourney to Butler and now have lost 6 of 8. The long wait begins for Xavier, and it does not look great. Musketeer fans must root for Creighton and Oklahoma, so that these wins get better. In general, the committee has shown recently that they would prefer high achieving mid-majors with a similar resume.

Memphis (16-7)- NET: 52 vs Q1 0-3, vs Q2 4-3)

- It was a crushing loss on Sunday for Memphis after losing to Houston at the buzzer. A road win against the Cougars might have put them on the right side of the bubble. With no Q1 wins, they likely need to beat Houston today to have a chance. Winning the conference tournament is the best option. 

Seton Hall (14-13) NET: 57 Q1 3-8, vs Q2 4-4

- The Pirates ended their 4 game skid by outlasting St. John's in a Big East bubble battle.. Their two best wins are at UConn and at Xavier. A 7-11 mark against Q1/Q2 and being 2 games above .500 means the Pirates need to continue their run in the Big East Conference Tournament. Up next is upset minded Georgetown in the semifinals.

St. John's (16-11 NET: 69 vs Q1 2-6, vs Q2 4-3)

- The Red Storm at one point went 8-2 during a stretch this season before losing at home to DePaul. Their two best wins are against Villanova(home) and UConn(road). Their net ranking isn't great with two bad losses. The loss against Seton Hall in the quarters likely keeps them out, but their is still a slight possibility especially with possible COVID outbreaks.

SMU (11-5 NET: 65 vs Q1 0-3 vs Q2 4-0)

- Their best win of the season is against Memphis at home. Their loss yesterday against Cincinnati puts them out of consideration.

Stanford (14-13  NET: 78 vs Q1 4-6, vs Q2 1-5)

- The Cardinal have collapsed down the stretch and continue by losing in the  PAC-12 tourney opener to Cal. They boast a decent record against Q1 with wins over Alabama, Arizona(x2), and UCLA but a bad record against Q2 with 2 Q3 losses. It does not look good for the Cardinal, and they will likely be going to the NIT.

NC State (13-10 NET: 73 vs Q1 1-7 vs Q2 3-2)

- The Wolfpack lost to Syracuse in a must win game in the ACC tourney. Their overall profile just is not strong enough, so a trip to the NIT is probably in the bags.

Fringe Candidates: Georgetown, Oregon State