Bubble Watch- 2/22/18

With only 18 days until Selection Sunday, we are faced with one of the strongest bubbles we have had in a while as there are several teams fighting on the bubble with 3-5 Tier 1 wins. Recently, there have been teams 1-2 Top 50 wins that have qualified for an at-large. This largely due to the fact that this year does not have a dominant tier of teams like most years and that teams seeded between 5-11 have fairly similar resumes, which means there are several teams that are not officially safe yet.


Safety Zone
AAC: Cincinnati, Wichita State
ACC: Virginia, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina
A-10: 
Big East: Xavier, Villanova
Big 12: Texas Tech, Kansas, West Virginia
Big Ten: Purdue, Michigan State
MWC:
PAC-12: Arizona
SEC: Auburn, Tennessee
WCC: 

Neutral Zone- Teams Needing 1-3 more wins
Houston, Ohio State, Rhode Island, Arizona State, Kentucky, Alabama, Texas A&M, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Missouri, Providence, Creighton, Michigan, Arkansas, Florida State, Florida

Danger Zone- Current At-Large Contenders
TCU, Seton Hall, Nevada, Virginia Tech, Butler, UCLA, Texas, St. Mary's, Middle Tennessee, Miami (FL), Washington, Kansas State, St. Bonaventure, NC State, Baylor, USC, Syracuse, Utah, Louisville, Loyola-Chicago, Marquette, New Mexico State, Georgia, LSU, Temple, Louisiana, Boise State, UCF, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Penn State

TCU (18-9)- RPI: 21 vs Tier 1- 4-7, vs Tier 2 2-2

- The Horned Frogs need at least 2 more wins to secure a bid. Anything short of that would put them on thin ice.

Seton Hall (18-9)- RPI: 24, vs Tier 1- 3-6, vs Tier 2 3-2 

- Seton Hall has some great wins and a good RPI, which puts them in great position for a bid. They were leading at Providence in the 2nd half before game was suspended. Either way 2-3 more wins should make it official.

Nevada (23-5)- RPI: 10, vs Tier 1 2-2, vs Tier 2 3-1
- The Wolfpack have a great RPI and wins over Rhode Island and at Boise State. It is probably best to avoid losses to anyone besides Boise State at this point.

Butler (19-10- RPI: 38 vs Tier 1 3-8, vs Tier 2 6-1)

- Butler has a great win over Villanova but nothing too special outside of that. The Bulldogs end the season with two straight on the road. With only 3 Tier 1 wins, there is definitely work to do to feel safe.

UCLA (19-8- RPI: 47 vs Tier 1 2-4, vs Tier 2 3-3)

- The Bruins have 2 signature victories away from home but not much to add to them. UCLA sits pretty well today. However, they end the season with 3 on the road. All of the these are Tier 1 games, but the Bruins can't afford to lose all 3.

Texas (16-11)- RPI: 52 vs Tier 1 5-8, vs Tier 2 3-3)

- The Longhorns have plenty of good wins and no bad losses. At this point, improving their overall record is needed, so any win is helpful now.

Virginia Tech (20-8)- RPI: 54 vs Tier 1 4-6, vs Tier 2 4-1

-The Hokies have played down the stretch including their highlight of the season with the win at Virginia. VA Tech is in great shape. The only thing that is holding them back in their Non-conference SOS, so a couple more wins are recommended.

St. Mary's (25-4)- RPI: 28 vs Tier 1 1-0, vs Tier 2 2-2 
- Their overall record and win at Gonzaga carried them for a while. With 2 recent defeats especially the one at San Francisco, the margin for error is small. More losses like the San Fran one could be costly.

Middle Tennessee State (22-5)- RPI: 21 vs Tier 1 2-3, vs Tier 2 2-1

- The Blue Raiders are the favorite in the C-USA tourney. Winning the auto bid is recommended. Their at-large profile is pretty good. Anything short of winning out and losing to Western Kentucky in the C-USA finals could be damaging though.

Miami (FL) (19-8)- RPI: 30 vs Tier 1 4-5, vs Tier 2 2-2

- The Hurricanes have been a hidden bubble team as most people have not realized that this team's best win is (N) Middle Tennessee. Without a real signature win, it is hard to feel certain about their chances. Their overall profile is pretty good, but the overall lack of marquee wins especially a signature one could make this a sticky situation for the Canes.

Washington (18-9)- RPI: 47 vs Tier 1 4-5, vs Tier 2 5-3

- The Huskies have a good number of top two tier wins with the wins at Kansas and over Arizona standing out. Washington just needs to win games at this point. They end the season with 4 very winnable games where winning all 4 should do the trick.

Kansas State  (19-8)- RPI: 59 vs Tier 1 2-7 vs Tier 2 3-1
- Kansas State sits in 4th in the Big 12, but their current profile is not good. A bad N-SOS and lack of good wins stands out. The Wildcats badly need to finish strong and get some more quality wins.

St. Bonaventure (21-6)- RPI: 26 vs Tier 1 3-2, vs Tier 2 4-2
- The Bonnies have a great overall profile with the exception of their 2 Tier 3 losses. It is important that they avoid losses to anyone besides URI, which means winning out until the A-10 championship against URI would be ideal.

NC State (19-9)- RPI: 55 vs Tier 1 5-5, vs Tier 2 3-3

- The Wolfpack have some real quality wins including at UNC and Arizona in the Bahamas. Winning games and improving their RPI is needed. Completing the season sweep on UNC would be fantastic. They should aim for 3-4 more wins.

Baylor (17-11) RPI: 56 Tier 1 3-8, Tier 2 2-2

- Baylor has played well lately to move into the bubble picture. They still have a long way to go to feel good about their chances. Winning games in the Big 12 is needed as win will improve their resume.

USC (19-9) RPI: 42 Tier 1 3-6, Tier 2 5-2

- The Trojans have stayed in the picture with their best current wins over Middle Tennessee and New Mexico State in Hawaii. More quality wins are needed. The remaining schedule is tough with a Tier 1 game at Utah.

Syracuse (18-10) RPI: 39 Tier 1 2-5, Tier 2 4-3

- The Orange are almost out of chances for a signature win. Their strong computer numbers are helping them out as the rest of their profile is lacking. Good wins are needed, and work in ACC tourney needs to be done.

Utah (17-9) RPI: 49 Tier 1 4-6, Tier 2 2-2

- The Utes clearly sit out currently but end the season with 3 home games. 2 are against USC and UCLA giving Utah a chance to play their way in.

Louisville (18-9) RPI: 51 Tier 1 1-9, Tier 2 4-0

- Louisville has struggled against good competition all season as shown with their 1-9 Tier 1 record. If this holds, losing out their regular season is likely as they finish with 3 more Tier 1 games.

Loyola-Chicago (24-5) RPI: 41 Tier 1 1-1, Tier 2 3-2

- The Ramblers have a win at Florida and relatively strong computer numbers. The resurgence from the Gators is likely needed to give them a realistic shot at an at-large. Winning the MVC is their best option.

Marquette (16-11) RPI: 60 Tier 1 4-9, Tier 2 2-2
- In recent years, this profile would look much better. Overall, winning games is needed as their RPI is not too good and their number of losses are stacking up.

New Mexico State (22-5) RPI: 46 Tier 1 1-2, Tier 2 2-1

- The Aggies had a legit at large profile before their back to back losses to Utah Valley and Seattle. It is unclear if an at-large is possible, which makes the WAC tourney the obvious choice. Winning out until the finals is an absolute must to have any at-large hopes.

Georgia (15-12) RPI: 66 Tier 1 4-5, Tier 2 4-4

- The Bulldogs have a good amount of good wins but are only 3 games above .500 in a year with a strong bubble. A lot of work is needed, and the margin for error is small.

LSU (16-11) RPI: 75 Tier 1 5-5, Tier 2 3-5

- In other years, this type of profile has received a lot more attention, which is likely because it is normally an ACC school. The Tigers have plenty of good wins but have rough computer numbers. A couple more Tier 1 wins would really make this interesting.

Temple (15-12) RPI: 44 Tier 1 3-8, Tier 2 4-0

- Wins over Clemson and Auburn at neutral sites are great. 4 losses against Tiers 3-4 are not. If the Owls win out until the AAC tourney and win a couple games there, it is interesting to see where they will stand. Avoiding any losses is a must.

Fringe Candidates:

Louisiana, Boise State, UCF, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Penn State