NCAA Basketball Bubble Watch- 2/28/18

March is here and with only 10 until Selection Sunday, there are several teams that can still play their way in with what could be one of the deepest bubbles ever. This week features many battles of bubble teams. Conference tourneys also begin for at-large hopefuls in Big Ten, WCC, and MVC. This should be a fun final two weeks in a season that has gave us several surprising results keeping us on the edge of our seats. 

Here is the current breakdown:

- Arkansas is now safe after win over Auburn.

- Florida won at Alabama giving them a 9th Tier 1 win, and Miami (FL) scored their biggest win of the season at North Carolina. Both move to Neutral Zone.

-Georgia, Temple, and LSU picked up damaging losses and will now need a lot of work in their conference tourneys.


Safety Zone
AAC: Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
ACC: Virginia, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina
A-10: 
Big East: Xavier, Villanova
Big 12: Texas Tech, Kansas, West Virginia
Big Ten: Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan
MWC:
PAC-12: Arizona
SEC: Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas
WCC: Gonzaga

Neutral Zone- Almost Locks
Rhode Island, Seton Hall, Texas A&M, TCU, Creighton, Butler, Florida, Miami (FL), Oklahoma

Danger Zone- Current At-Large Contenders
Missouri, Arizona State, NC State, Virginia Tech, Nevada, Providence, Florida State, USC, St. Bonaventure, Alabama, Middle Tennessee State, St. Mary's, Texas, UCLA, Washington, Louisville, Baylor, Kansas State, Syracuse, Utah, Loyola-Chicago, Marquette, Mississippi State, Oregon, New Mexico State, Boise State, Notre Dame, Georgia, LSU, Temple, Louisiana, Nebraska, Penn State, Western Kentucky, UCF, Buffalo

Missouri (19-11 RPI: 40 vs Tier 1 6-7, vs Tier 2 5-2)

- Mizzou has many Tier 1 wins and has good computer numbers. Their high number of losses like their fellow SEC members is what is putting them in a potentially dangerous spot. The Tigers took care of business at Vanderbilt and now host Arkansas before SEC tourney begins. A win over Arkansas would solidify their ticket.

Arizona State (19-9  RPI: 42 vs Tier 1 3-4, vs Tier 4-4)

- Arizona State's wins at Kansas and over Xavier (N) have carried them to the finish line so far. At 7-9 in the Pac-12, beating Cal and Stanford this week should lock them in. A loss at home to either is something to avoid.

NC State (19-9)- RPI: 49 vs Tier 1 5-7, vs Tier 2 2-0

- The Wolfpack have some real quality wins including at UNC and Arizona in the Bahamas. If they avoid the bad loss at Georgia Tech this week, it is hard not seeing this team in the field.

Virginia Tech (21-9)- RPI: 46vs Tier 1 5-6, vs Tier 2 4-2

-The Hokies have quality wins at Virginia and at home over Duke, so quality wins are not the issue. The only thing that is holding them back in their Non-conference SOS and their RPI, so a couple more wins are recommended.

Nevada (25-5)- RPI: 15, vs Tier 1 2-2, vs Tier 2 4-1
- The Wolfpack have a great RPI and wins over Rhode Island and at Boise State. Avoiding losses to anyone besides Boise State will be enough.

Providence (18-12 RPI: 43 vs Tier 1 3-7, vs Tier 2 5-1)

- The Friars have been drifting lately pushing them back into the Danger Zone. They lost at Xavier and now get St. John's at home this week. Losing this and their first game in Big East tourney could knock them out.

Florida State (19-10 RPI: 47 vs Tier 1 6-6, vs Tier 2 1-3)

- FSU has a good amount of Tier 1 wins, which should carry them in. However, losing their next 2 games could put them in an interesting spot as. This has not been great road team but does have home wins over UNC and Clemson.

USC (21-9) RPI: 31 Tier 1 4-5, Tier 2 4-3

- The Trojans picked up a huge win at Utah to go with their wins over Middle Tennessee and New Mexico State in Hawaii. Their resume looks great, but the lack of signature win is what stands out. They will likely have an opportunity for more Tier 1 games in the PAc-12 tourney. Avoiding a bad loss there is strongly recommended.

St. Bonaventure (23-6)- RPI: 21 vs Tier 1 3-2, vs Tier 2 5-2
- The Bonnies beat URI and currently have a great overall profile with the exception of their 2 Tier 3/4 losses. It is important that they avoid losses to anyone besides URI, which means winning out until the A-10 championship.

Alabama (17-13 RPI: 57 vs Tier 1 5-6, vs Tier 2 6-6)

- The Crimson Tide have plenty of quality wins for an at-large bid. Their high number of losses is what is holding them back. Losing out would give them 2 more losses and a 17-15 record. If they fail to win at Texas A&M and the SEC tourney, they will have 15 losses.

Middle Tennessee State (22-5)- RPI: 25 vs Tier 1 3-3, vs Tier 2 1-1

- The Blue Raiders are the favorite in the C-USA tourney. Winning the auto bid is recommended. Their at-large profile is pretty good. Anything short of winning out and losing to Western Kentucky or Old Dominion in the C-USA finals could be damaging though.

St. Mary's (27-4)- RPI: 38 vs Tier 1 1-1, vs Tier 2 2-1 
- Their overall record and win at Gonzaga carried them for a while. With 2 recent defeats especially the one at San Francisco, the margin for error is small. More losses like the San Fran one could be costly. They will likely open the WCC tourney against Santa Clara, which is a must win.

Texas (17-13)- RPI: 60 vs Tier 1 5-10, vs Tier 2 3-3)

- The Longhorns have plenty of good wins and no bad losses. At this point, improving their overall record is needed, so any win is helpful now. The bad thing for the Longhorns is that all that remains a  home date with West Virginia and the Big 12 tourney. A loss to the Mountaineers and a loss in Big 12 tourney would give them 15 losses.

UCLA (19-10- RPI: 54 vs Tier 1 2-6, vs Tier 2 4-2)

- The Bruins have 2 signature victories away from home but not much to add to them. UCLA is in danger and really needs to win at USC. If not, work in the Pac-12 tourney is definitely recommended.

Washington (19-10)- RPI: 51 vs Tier 1 3-6, vs Tier 2 2-2

- The Huskies have 2 great wins with the wins at Kansas and over Arizona. Washington just needs to win games at this point especially Tier 1 or 2. They end the season with Oregon and Oregon State coming to town. Both are a must.

Louisville (19-10) RPI: 39 Tier 1 3-8, Tier 2 2-2

- Louisville has struggled against good competition all season as shown with their 3-8 Tier 1 record with their best win coming at Florida State. A signature win or two is a must at this point as their lack of bad losses and RPI is   the only thing helping them now. Virginia comes to town next.

Baylor (18-12) RPI: 58 Tier 1 4-10, Tier 2 3-2

- Baylor has played well lately to move into the bubble picture. They still have a long way to go to feel good about their chances. Beating K-State would be great for them, but work in Big 12 is likely needed to feel somewhat decent about their chances.

Kansas State  (20-10)- RPI: 63 vs Tier 1 3-9 vs Tier 2 6-0
- Kansas State sits in 4th in the Big 12, but their current profile is not good. A bad N-SOS and lack of good wins stands out. The Wildcats badly need to finish strong and get some more quality wins. The Big 12 tourney will be very important for KSU.

Syracuse (18-12) RPI: 44 Tier 1 2-7, Tier 2 4-3

- The Orange are almost out of chances for a signature win. Their strong computer numbers are helping them out as the rest of their profile is lacking. Good wins are needed, and work in ACC tourney needs to be done.

Utah (18-10) RPI: 54 Tier 1 3-5, Tier 2 3-4

- The Utes had a home split with UCLA and USC. Beating Colorado is required and a run in PAC-12 tourney has to happen to feel decent about their chances.

Loyola-Chicago (24-5) RPI: 32 Tier 1 1-1, Tier 2 2-2

- The Ramblers have a win at Florida and relatively strong computer numbers. The resurgence from the Gators is likely needed to give them a realistic shot at an at-large. Winning the MVC is their best option. However, Clayton Custer did not play for the stretch where they went 2-3, which might be a factor.

Marquette (18-12) RPI: 62 Tier 1 4-7, Tier 2 3-4
- In recent years, this profile would look much better. Overall, winning games is needed as their RPI is not too good and their number of losses are stacking up. Big East tourney is very important for them.

Mississippi State (20-9)- RPI: 68 vs Tier 1 3-7, vs Tier 2 4-2)

- The Bulldogs played a very bad N-SOS, which really shows now as their RPI is still in the late 60s. There are some good wins, but nothing on this resume is screaming pick me. There is plenty of work to be done.

Oregon (19-10)- RPI: 74 vs Tier 1 2-4, vs Tier 2 4-4)

- The Ducks have really turned it on, which has allowed them to fly into the bubble picture. Winning at Washington and Wazzu this week would really draw some attention.

New Mexico State (23-5) RPI: 50 Tier 1 1-2, Tier 2 2-1

- The Aggies had a legit at large profile before their back to back losses to Utah Valley and Seattle. It is unclear if an at-large is possible, which makes the WAC tourney the obvious choice. Winning out until the finals is an absolute must to have any at-large hopes.

Boise State (21-7)- RPI: 48 vs Tier 1 1-2, vs Tier 2 4-3)

- The Broncos saw their resume get better with Loyola-Chicago and Oregon's RPI's soaring up. It is hard to see this team getting an at-large, but if enough teams ahead of them damage their profile, you never know. Losing at San Diego State is pretty damaging. No more losses to teams other than Nevada is required at this point.

Fringe Candidates:

Notre Dame, Georgia, LSU, Temple, Louisiana, Nebraska, Penn State, Western Kentucky, UCF, Buffalo