NCAA Basketball Bubble Watch- 2/27/18

With only 12 until Selection Sunday, there are several teams that can still play their way in with what could be one of the deepest bubbles ever. This week features many battles of bubble teams. Conference tourneys also begin for at-large hopefuls in Big Ten, WCC, and MVC. This should be a fun final two weeks in a season that has gave us several surprising results keeping us on the edge of our seats. 

Here is the current breakdown:


Safety Zone
AAC: Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
ACC: Virginia, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina
A-10: 
Big East: Xavier, Villanova
Big 12: Texas Tech, Kansas, West Virginia
Big Ten: Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan
MWC:
PAC-12: Arizona
SEC: Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky
WCC: Gonzaga

Neutral Zone- Almost Locks
Rhode Island, Seton Hall, Texas A&M, TCU, Creighton, Arkansas, Butler, Oklahoma

Danger Zone- Current At-Large Contenders
Florida, Alabama, Arizona State, NC State, Nevada, Providence, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Missouri, USC, Miami (FL), St. Bonaventure, Middle Tennessee State, St. Mary's, Texas, UCLA, Washington, Louisville, Kansas State, Syracuse, Utah, Baylor, Boise State, Loyola-Chicago, Marquette, Mississippi State, Oregon, New Mexico State, Georgia, LSU, Temple, Louisiana,, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Penn State, Western Kentucky, UCF, Buffalo

Florida (18-11)- RPI: 56 vs Tier 1- 8-4, vs Tier 2 3-7 

- This is one of the strangest resumes ever which has more Tier 1 wins than almost every D1 team. Somehow, they struggle against Tier 2 teams and have been beaten at home 5 times. The Gators are almost a sure thing but their RPI is a bit shaky and would really test the committee if they lose out.

Alabama (17-12 RPI: 41 vs Tier 1 5-6, vs Tier 2 6-5)

- The Crimson Tide have plenty of quality wins for an at-large bid. Their high number of losses is what is holding them back. Losing out would give them 3 more losses and a 17-15 record. It is important to win at least one of the remaining regular season games.

Arizona State (19-9  RPI: 42 vs Tier 1 4-4, vs Tier 2 3-4)

- Arizona State's wins at Kansas and over Xavier (N) have carried them to the finish line so far. At 7-9 in the Pac-12, beating Cal and Stanford this week should lock them in. A loss at home to either is something to avoid.

NC State (19-9)- RPI: 47 vs Tier 1 5-6, vs Tier 2 2-1

- The Wolfpack have some real quality wins including at UNC and Arizona in the Bahamas. If they avoid the bad loss at Georgia Tech this week, it is hard not seeing this team in the field.

Nevada (25-5)- RPI: 15, vs Tier 1 2-2, vs Tier 2 4-1
- The Wolfpack have a great RPI and wins over Rhode Island and at Boise State. Avoiding losses to anyone besides Boise State will be enough.

Providence (18-11 RPI: 43 vs Tier 1 3-7, vs Tier 2 5-1)

- The Friars have been drifting lately pushing them back into the Danger Zone. They go to Xavier and get St. John's at home this week. Losing both and their first game in Big East tourney could knock them out.

Virginia Tech (21-9)- RPI: 59 vs Tier 1 5-5, vs Tier 2 4-3

-The Hokies have quality wins at Virginia and at home over Duke VA Tech, so quality wins are not the issue. The only thing that is holding them back in their Non-conference SOS and their RPI, so a couple more wins are recommended.

Missouri (17-11 RPI: 44 vs Tier 1 6-7, vs Tier 2 4-2)

- Mizzou has many Tier 1 wins and has good computer numbers. Their high number of losses like their fellow SEC members is what is putting them in a potentially dangerous spot. Losing out would put them at 17-14, which does not sound like an at-large worthy team. They go to Vanderbilt and host Arkansas before SEC tourney begins.

USC (21-9) RPI: 27 Tier 1 4-5, Tier 2 4-3

- The Trojans picked up a huge win at Utah to go with their wins over Middle Tennessee and New Mexico State in Hawaii. Their resume looks great, but the lack of signature win is what stands out. They will likely have an opportunity for more Tier 1 games in the PAc-12 tourney. Avoiding a bad loss there is strongly recommended.

Miami (FL) (20-8)- RPI: 31 vs Tier 1 4-5, vs Tier 2 2-2

- The Hurricanes have been a hidden bubble team as most people have not realized that this team's best win is (N) Middle Tennessee. Without a real signature win, it is hard to feel certain about their chances. Their overall profile is pretty good, but the overall lack of marquee wins especially a signature one could make this a sticky situation for the Canes. Like USC, avoiding a bad loss is a must.

St. Bonaventure (22-6)- RPI: 26 vs Tier 1 4-2, vs Tier 2 4-2
- The Bonnies beat URI and currently have a great overall profile with the exception of their 2 Tier 3/4 losses. It is important that they avoid losses to anyone besides URI, which means winning out until the A-10 championship.

Middle Tennessee State (22-5)- RPI: 23 vs Tier 1 3-3, vs Tier 2 1-1

- The Blue Raiders are the favorite in the C-USA tourney. Winning the auto bid is recommended. Their at-large profile is pretty good. Anything short of winning out and losing to Western Kentucky or Old Dominion in the C-USA finals could be damaging though.

St. Mary's (27-4)- RPI: 38 vs Tier 1 1-1, vs Tier 2 2-1 
- Their overall record and win at Gonzaga carried them for a while. With 2 recent defeats especially the one at San Francisco, the margin for error is small. More losses like the San Fran one could be costly. They will likely open the WCC tourney against Santa Clara, which is a must win.

Texas (17-13)- RPI: 57 vs Tier 1 5-10, vs Tier 2 3-3)

- The Longhorns have plenty of good wins and no bad losses. At this point, improving their overall record is needed, so any win is helpful now. The bad thing for the Longhorns is that all that remains a  home date with West Virginia and the Big 12 tourney. A loss to the Mountaineers and a loss in Big 12 tourney would give them 15 losses.

UCLA (19-10- RPI: 54 vs Tier 1 3-6, vs Tier 2 3-2)

- The Bruins have 2 signature victories away from home but not much to add to them. UCLA is in danger and really needs to win at USC. If not, work in the Pac-12 tourney is definitely recommended.

Washington (19-10)- RPI: 51 vs Tier 1 3-5, vs Tier 2 2-3

- The Huskies have 2 great wins with the wins at Kansas and over Arizona. Washington just needs to win games at this point especially Tier 1 or 2. They end the season with Oregon and Oregon State coming to town. Both are a must.

Louisville (19-10) RPI: 39 Tier 1 3-8, Tier 2 2-2

- Louisville has struggled against good competition all season as shown with their 3-8 Tier 1 record with their best win coming at Florida State. A signature win or two is a must at this point as their lack of bad losses and RPI is   the only thing helping them now. Virginia comes to town next.

Kansas State  (20-9)- RPI: 61 vs Tier 1 3-8 vs Tier 2 6-0
- Kansas State sits in 4th in the Big 12, but their current profile is not good. A bad N-SOS and lack of good wins stands out. The Wildcats badly need to finish strong and get some more quality wins. Winning at TCU would help, but the Big 12 tourney will be very important for KSU.

Syracuse (18-11) RPI: 46 Tier 1 2-7, Tier 2 4-2

- The Orange are almost out of chances for a signature win. Their strong computer numbers are helping them out as the rest of their profile is lacking. Good wins are needed, and work in ACC tourney needs to be done.

Utah (18-10) RPI: 57 Tier 1 3-6, Tier 2 3-3

- The Utes had a home split with UCLA and USC. Beating Colorado is required and a run in PAC-12 tourney has to happen to feel decent about their chances.

Baylor (17-12) RPI: 63 Tier 1 4-10, Tier 2 2-2

- Baylor has played well lately to move into the bubble picture. They still have a long way to go to feel good about their chances. Winning games in the Big 12 is needed as win will improve their resume.

Boise State (21-6)- RPI: 45 vs Tier 1 1-2, vs Tier 2 4-2)

- The Broncos saw their resume get better with Loyola-Chicago and Oregon's RPI's soaring up. It is hard to see this team getting an at-large, but if enough teams ahead of them damage their profile, you never know.

Loyola-Chicago (24-5) RPI: 33 Tier 1 1-1, Tier 2 2-2

- The Ramblers have a win at Florida and relatively strong computer numbers. The resurgence from the Gators is likely needed to give them a realistic shot at an at-large. Winning the MVC is their best option. However, Clayton Custer did not play for the stretch where they went 2-3, which might be a factor.

Marquette (17-12) RPI: 66 Tier 1 4-7, Tier 2 3-4
- In recent years, this profile would look much better. Overall, winning games is needed as their RPI is not too good and their number of losses are stacking up.

Mississippi State (20-8)- RPI: 62 vs Tier 1 3-6, vs Tier 2 4-2)

- The Bulldogs played a very bad N-SOS, which really shows now as their RPI is still in the 60s. There are some good wins, but nothing on this resume is screaming pick me. There is plenty of work to be done.

Oregon (19-10)- RPI: 72 vs Tier 1 2-5, vs Tier 2 4-3)

- The Ducks have really turned it on, which has allowed them to fly into the bubble picture. Winning at Washington and Wazzu this week would really draw some attention.

New Mexico State (23-5) RPI: 50 Tier 1 1-2, Tier 2 2-1

- The Aggies had a legit at large profile before their back to back losses to Utah Valley and Seattle. It is unclear if an at-large is possible, which makes the WAC tourney the obvious choice. Winning out until the finals is an absolute must to have any at-large hopes.

Georgia (16-12) RPI: 70 Tier 1 4-8, Tier 2 4-2

- The Bulldogs have a good amount of good wins but are only 4 games above .500 in a year with a strong bubble. A lot of work is needed, and the margin for error is small.

LSU (16-12) RPI: 82 Tier 1 6-6, Tier 2 2-5

- In other years, this type of profile has received a lot more attention, which is likely because it is normally an ACC school. The Tigers have plenty of good wins but have rough computer numbers. A couple more Tier 1 wins would really make this interesting.

Temple (16-12) RPI: 40 Tier 1 3-8, Tier 2 5-0

- Wins over Clemson and Auburn at neutral sites are great. 4 losses against Tiers 3-4 are not. If the Owls win out until the AAC tourney and win a couple games there, it is interesting to see where they will stand. Avoiding any more losses is a must.

Fringe Candidates:

Louisiana, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Penn State, Western Kentucky, UCF, Buffalo